Pick of the Day: Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka, WTA Finals

On Tuesday, Aryna Sabalenka will face Jessica Pegula in the round-robin stage of the WTA Finals. Both players won their openers in the Bacalar Group, and I think the oddsmakers are offering a very generous price on the Belarusian going 2-0.

In the first day of group play, Sabalenka absolutely dismantled Maria Sakkari, 6-0, 6-1. Pegula’s win over Elena Rybakina was also impressive, with the American coming away with a 7-5, 6-2 victory. But Rybakina looked like she was struggling to get comfortable out there. And overall, Sabalenka looked a little sharper, at least when it comes to the eye test.

Sabalenka has won four matches in a row against Pegula, and she didn’t drop a set in any of those victories—the last coming a year ago at this event. The 25-year-old just has a lot more power than Pegula from the baseline, and that’s always going to be hard for the American to overcome. Sabalenka also happens to be coming off a match in which she served extremely well. When she’s doing that, she’s almost unbeatable.

I just don’t think there’s much Pegula can do to make Sabalenka uncomfortable out there, even if she does redirect pace rather well. She'd have to play extremely aggressive tennis in order to find a way to make this competitive, and I'm not sure Pegula is comfortable playing that way. With that in mind, I think it’s worth laying a small number of games and backing Sabalenka to cover 2.5. She’s the far superior player and I think she should have been a bigger favorite, especially with her playing to finish as the year-end No. 1 this week.

Bet: Sabalenka -2.5 Games (-125)