Play of the Day: Belinda Bencic vs. Iga Swiatek, Wimbledon

HIGHLIGHTS: Swiatek defeats Martic to reach the fourth round

I suggested a heavy play on Iga Swiatek to win her Wimbledon quarter and I still full expect her to do so. However, no part of that bet says that she needs to blow out her opponents, and I like Belinda Bencic to hold her own in this fourth-round meeting. Rather than taking the Over on the game total, or backing Bencic to win a set, I’m going with the Swiss to win at least eight games at -105 odds.

Swiatek is the best player on the planet, but it’s undeniable that grass is her weakest surface. She’s a little more vulnerable at Wimbledon than she is at other majors, and we saw a little of that in her win over Petra Martic, who made Swiatek work for a 6-2, 7-5 win in the third round. I believe Swiatek will have her work cut out for her against Bencic, who is an impressive 46-21 on grass in her career. That 68.7% winning percentage is the best she has on any surface, by far.

Bencic’s biggest flaw is that she can occasionally disappear in big matches, but she might feel like she’s playing with house money here. Sure, there will be some nerves playing on a big stage, but nobody is expecting her to win. That means Bencic can go out and play freely, and I think she has the type of game that could give Swiatek a little trouble. Bencic can be very sturdy with her serve when she's dialed in, and she possesses a nice all-around game from the baseline. That means that Swiatek will need to play a clean match to blow her out. Swiatek has been getting by on grass thanks to her overwhelming talent, but I wouldn’t say she has looked completely comfortable.

The best part about this bet is that Bencic can lose in straight sets and still cash for us. She just needs to work deep into one of the two sets, getting to five or six games. That would make it very easy on her to cover in the other set. And if she does end up taking a set, that’s even better—we can kick back from there and root for Swiatek to win. (For what it’s worth, these two have met three times in their careers, and Bencic would have won this bet in two of the three match-ups.)

Bet: Bencic Over 7.5 Games Won (-105)