Betting Central

Play of the Day: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic, Wimbledon semifinal

Djokovic is a big favorite to advance, but Sinner pushed him to five sets last year, and won't go down without a fight.

Published Jul 13, 2023

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After beating Andrey Rublev in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, Novak Djokovic said that he loves being the guy that young players are chasing. Well, he’s going to get plenty of that in the coming rounds, with Jannik Sinner being his semi-final opponent and a potential meeting with Carlos Alcaraz or Daniil Medvedev waiting in the wings. I do think Djokovic will get to the final, as he is one of the sport’s best problem solvers. But I don’t think he’ll beat Sinner without dropping a set, which is why I’m backing the Italian to cover a 2.5-set spread (-145).

Djokovic comes into this match after having dropped a set to both Hubert Hurkacz and Rublev. The Serbian was also in danger of losing one against Stan Wawrinka, who gave away the third set in their third-round matchup. So while Djokovic continues to advance, he hasn’t been doing so in the cleanest of ways. Now, Djokovic takes on his toughest opponent yet, which is why I don’t see him winning in straight sets.

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Sinner pushed Djokovic to a deciding fifth set when these two met in the Wimbledon quarterfinals last year.

Sinner is one of the best ball strikers this sport has to offer, so I think he’ll have Djokovic on his heels a bit. Sinner also happens to be a much better server than he was 12 months ago, which is even more interesting in the context of this matchup. Sinner pushed Djokovic to a deciding fifth set when these two met in the Wimbledon quarterfinals last year, and the 21-year-old is a better player todayer than he was then. Of course, Djokovic is also playing some great tennis, so it’s never that simple. But it’s just unfair to ask the 36-year-old to win this big of a match decisively.

Look for Sinner to push Djokovic deep in a few of these sets, potentially even forcing a tiebreaker or two. If he can do that, you’d think Sinner would find a way to push through and grab at least one. This is actually one of my favorite plays of the tournament, so it’s one to think about betting a little more than usual.

Bet: Sinner +2.5 Sets (-145 – 2 units)

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