Play of the Day: Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Wimbledon

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I was pretty high on Madison Keys’ chances of winning this quarter, and that was before the tournament—at +700 odds. Naturally, that means I was confident the American could prevail in a potential matchup with Aryna Sabalenka. Well, here we are. Keys is a +155 underdog, and I think that’s a very generous price in a match that can legitimately go either way. With that said, I’d strongly suggest putting a little something down on Keys.

These two have met just twice in their careers, with the two players splitting. But it was Keys that won when these two met on grass, a 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 victory in Berlin two years ago. Both of these two possess massive serves and big, powerful shots from the baseline. So, this will be a strength-on-strength matchup, and I’m not sure a lot will separate them.

In a match-up in which both players could struggle to find breaks, I think it’s worth backing the underdog and hoping things go her way. And while Keys’ serve looked a little faulty against Mirra Andreeva at times, I do trust the American’s serve a bit more than Sabalenka’s. The Belarusian has done a good job of correcting her service yips over the last year, but she can still occasionally struggle with the ball on her racquet. And we saw how badly nerves impacted her in the Roland Garros semifinals, when she blew a 5-2 third-set lead against Karolina Muchova.

If any sort of doubt creeps into Sabalenka’s mind in this match, you’re going to wish you played Keys to win. It also doesn’t hurt that Sabalenka is the one with all the pressure on her in this match. Keys is really in something of a house-money spot, as not many people thought she’d make it to this point.

Bet: Keys ML (+155)