Play of the Day: Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur, Wimbledon final

Ons Jabeur is coming off three tremendous wins. In the Round of 16, Jabeur dominated two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, 6-0, 6-3. The Czech lefty had been red hot coming into the tournament, too. In her next two wins, Jabeur lost the first set and battled back, and she did so against defending Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, and then world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka.

With that in mind, it isn’t hard to see why she’s a heavy favorite to beat Marketa Vondrousova. But I don't think she'll beat this Czech lefty in straights.

For as good as Jabeur has been in SW19, Vondrousova has been great in her own right. Her wins might not be as high profile as Jabeur’s, but she beat Elina Svitolina in straight sets after the Ukrainian knocked out world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. She also earned victories over Veronika Kudermetova, Donna Vekic and Jessica Pegula, all strong players. Vondrousova has just taken her game to another level on the grass, which might surprise some considering she hasn’t been a great grass-court player in the past.

The reality here is that Vondrousova’s game has always been a good fit on grass, on paper. She has good variety, a decent amount of power and the ability to play defense. On top of that, Vondrousova is also a player that is clearly a Top 10 talent, even if she’s not there in the rankings. So, don’t look at this as if Jabeur is getting the chance to play some nobody. That couldn’t be further from the truth, and Vondrousova can test her in every way imaginable.

I do ultimately think that Jabeur finds a way to win her first Grand Slam title, but I think she’ll have to fight for it—much like she has done in each of the previous two rounds. That’s why I’m taking Vondrousova to cover the set spread. I feel better about her winning one set than I do Jabeur winning in straights. But I don’t quite trust the Czech to win outright, so I’m not sure it’s worth a moneyline play.

Bet: Vondrousova +1.5 Sets (-145)