Play of the Day: Matteo Berrettini vs. Carlos Alcaraz, Wimbledon

Why Matteo Berrettini Would "Have Signed With My Blood" To Play 5 Straight Days At Wimbledon

Matteo Berrettini has come out this week looking like the player that made the Wimbledon final in 2021. The Italian is into the fourth round after earning impressive wins over Lorenzo Sonego, Alex de Minaur and Alexander Zverev. Berrettini has only lost one set along the way. His straight-set win over Zverev in the last round was especially impressive, and it’s honestly nice to see the 27-year-old back on top of his game. The only issue is that Berrettini now has to face Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round.

I think the run ends here and I like the Spaniard to cover a small 2.5-game spread.

Berrettini definitely does a better job than Alcaraz when it comes to raising his game on grass, and it’s becoming pretty clear that this is the Italian’s best surface. But I am essentially banking on the fact that Berrettini’s best not being good enough against even an average version of Alcaraz. The 20-year-old has also had a lot of time to figure out how to play on this surface in recent weeks.

After having barely played on grass in his career, Alcaraz went out and won a title at Queen’s Club a few weeks ago. That was five matches he got to play on the surface before arriving at the All England Club, and the Spaniard earned wins over good players like Jiri Lehecka, Grigor Dimitrov, Sebastian Korda and de Minaur along the way. When you combine those matches with the three he has played in Wimbledon, Alcaraz has suddenly spent a nice amount of time learning how to best approach grass-court tennis.

I also think it’s huge that Alcaraz got to face Nicolas Jarry last round. Jarry isn’t quite as good as Berrettini, but he’s another big player that can go huge with his serve and really rip forehands. Alcaraz should be able to take a lot from that match, and apply it against Berrettini. And one way I think Alcaraz will attack the Italian is by going to his drop shot and getting the big guy moving. Berrettini has held up physically early in this tournament, but he hadn’t played a full match since April before this event. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if his conditioning were to become an issue at some point in the next few weeks, and Alcaraz just so happens to hit the drop shot better than 99% of the players on tour.

If Alcaraz is getting his first serves in at a decent clip, I don’t see him losing this match. And the Spaniard is holding at a very high percentage this grass-court season, so I’m not sure it’s something we need to worry about.

Bet: Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-140)