Preview: Jannik Sinner or Taylor Fritz, who wins the 2024 ATP Finals?

Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz

“I trust my game and I trust my level,” Taylor Fritz said after his three-set win over Alexander Zverev in the Turin semifinals on Saturday. “I don't feel anywhere near as uncomfortable in these situations anymore because I’ve been putting myself in these situations against the top guys at big events a lot lately.”

At the slightly advanced tennis age of 27, Fritz has had his second breakthrough in three months. In September, he reached a Grand Slam final for the first time, at the US Open. Now he has reached the final of the ATP’s elite, eight-man year-end championships for the first time.

There’s only one problem: On Sunday, he’ll have to face the same man who ended his run in New York, Jannik Sinner.

WATCH: Sinner vs. Fritz Sunday at 12 p.m. ET on Tennis Channel or stream on our app

Fritz will also have to play him for the second time this week. The American and the Italian met in the round-robin stage in Turin, and the Italian won again, 6-4, 6-4. That’s obviously good news for Sinner, who has now won the last six sets they’ve played. According to Fritz, though, he made progress, even in defeat.

“Even though the result’s the same and the score’s not even that different, the matches felt very, very different,” Fritz said. “I felt like from the ground we were pretty even. I didn’t feel like I was getting dominated in any of the patterns rally-wise, which in the US Open forehand to forehand I was getting killed.”

Sinner didn’t disagree.

“I feel like we both played some great tennis,” he said. “Completely different match than the first one. I don’t want to compare, but it was a very tough match, tough encounter, and I’m very happy about the win.”

I trust my game and I trust my level. Taylor Fritz

Sinner and Fritz were all for the first nine games of each set. Then, both times, Fritz made a bad error while serving at 4-5. The difference came down to, as it always does in tennis, just a few big points.

“I felt like we were going back and forth. It was pretty even for a lot of the match. But he played a lot of those 15-30, 30-all points just a bit better,” Fritz said. “In those situations, he played a lot of those big-moment points better.”

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There are a couple of stats that Fritz will want to turn around from the last encounter. He made 26 unforced errors to Sinner’s 18, and he won just 38 percent of his first-serve points, while Sinner won 59. Sinner was brave enough to go big on a lot of his second serves, and it paid off for him.

Despite Fritz’s breakthrough week and steadily rising confidence, the signs all point to another Sinner victory on Sunday. He’s won 25 of his last 26 matches. He’s 5-0 in sets against Fritz this season. He’s at home, trying to win his first ATP Finals. And all else being equal, he’s a purer, more consistent ball-striker. Fritz will likely have to have a perfect serving day to have a chance.

Even then, if Sinner finishes 2024 the way he has played most of it, he’ll win anyway. Winner: Sinner