Preview: Shanghai feels like a potential US Open do-over, without the Olympic hangover

The ATP’s Masters 1000 series picks up again in Shanghai, starting on Wednesday. It’s the tour’s first mandatory event since the Canada- Cincinnati-US Open trifecta of late-summer, and it comes with more than $10 million in prize money.

The field is suitably stacked. Nine of the tour’s Top 10 are in the draw, and Novak Djokovic will make his first appearance since losing early at the US Open. In fact, Shanghai feels like something of a do-over after upsets robbed the Open of some of its second-week drama. By now, Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and everyone else should be recovered from the post-Olympic hangover that brought them down in New York.

Here are three takeaways from the Shanghai draw:

The top four seeds feel out of order

Jannik Sinner and Alcaraz, who each won two majors in 2024, are the consensus players of the year, and Djokovic is still a dangerous third wheel. But that isn’t quite reflected in the Shanghai seedings. Sinner is No. 1, Alexander Zverev is No. 2, Alcaraz is third, and Djokovic is fourth.

Those seedings don’t quite reflect the live ATP race, either. With his run to the final in Beijing, Alcaraz clinched a return to No. 2, but that didn’t happen in time for the Shanghai seedings. Which means that Sinner and Alcaraz are in the top half together, and Zverev and Djokovic are in the bottom half. It also means that No. 5 Daniil Medvedev is in the same quarter as Sinner. This is similar to what we saw at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but it feels even less representative of current ATP reality than it did then.

Of course, if last year’s edition of this tournament is any indication, none of that might end up meaning much. In 2023, the Top 4 were all gone by the quarterfinals, and the semifinalists were Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev, Hubert Hurkacz, and Sebastian Korda. Hurkacz, who is not in Shanghai this time, edged Rublev 10-8 in a third-set tiebreaker for the title.

Sinner has the toughest path to the semis of the big names

There are no cakewalks at a Masters 1000 like this, but neither is there one road that looks especially rocky.

Sinner’s path is probably the most difficult for the simple fact that Medvedev is his potential quarterfinal opponent. Otherwise, he’ll be a solid favorite against any of the other seeds in his quarter—Tomas Etcheverry, Arthur Fils, Ben Shelton, and Stefanos Tsitsipas among them.

Alcaraz has an interesting potential opener against local favorite, and recent Chengdu champion, Jerry Shang. After that, he might face Nicolas Jarry, Ugo Humbert, and either Casper Ruud or Tommy Paul in the quarters.

Djokovic could also play a young Chinese talent, Bu Yunchaokete, in the first round. From there his road might look like this: Flavio Cobolli, Frances Tiafoe, and a quarterfinal against last year’s runner-up, Rublev. Djokovic hasn’t been to Shanghai since pre-pandemic 2019, but he’s a four-time champion there and has never lost before the quarters.

Zverev, the No. 2 seed, may be on a collision course with an opponent he may be sick of seeing across the net: Taylor Fritz. Fritz beat the German this year at Wimbledon, the US Open, and Laver Cup. Other seeds in this section include Holger Rune, Lorenzo Musetti, and Brandon Nakashima.

What are the early matchups to watch for, and who is going to win?

—Lorenzo Sonego and Denis Shapovalov faced off in the first round, for the chance to play Shelton (Editor's Note: Shapovalov prevailed)

—Shang Jungcheng, an up-and-coming 19-year-old Chinese lefty, will play Alcaraz in the second round after advancing

—Marin Cilic, 35, who just won a tournament in his first ATP appearance since February, might play Tokyo finalist Ugo Humbert in the second round

—Tommy Paul vs. Alejandro Tabilo in a possible third-rounder

—Djokovic vs. Tiafoe in a possible fourth-rounder

—Fellow Americans Fritz and Nakashima may meet in the third round

—If Matteo Berrettini wins his opener, he’ll face Rune

As for who will still be alive in the semifinals, I’ll ignore last year’s carnage and go chalk:

Semifinals: Sinner d. Alcaraz; Djokovic d. Fritz

Final: Sinner d. Djokovic