Rafael Nadal will always have Paris—but for now, his roads lead to Rome

FLASHBACK: Highlights from Rafa’s 14th RG triumph

The European clay-court season has barely started, and already ominous news has been made by a player who has not competed since January.

“The last few weeks and months have been difficult,” Rafael Nadal said in a video published on social media last Thursday. “As you know, I picked up a significant injury in Australia, to my psoas. First it was going to be a six to eight-week recovery period, we’re in the 14th week and the reality is that the situation is not what we expected.

“In any case, I have followed the medical advice but the progress has not been as they told us at the beginning. We find ourselves in a difficult situation, the weeks are passing by. I was excited to play in the most important tournaments in my career such as Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros. So far, I’ve missed Monte-Carlo and Barcelona and I also wanted to tell you that I won’t be able to be in Madrid.”

This development casts a significant cloud over Nadal’s preparation for Roland Garros. Nadal’s next competitive opportunity will come on May 10, at the 96-man Masters 1000 event in Rome. Should he be unable to play Rome, there is also the chance Nadal could request a wild card for one of the tournaments that start on May 21 in Geneva and Lyon. Yet given that those events conclude just prior to Roland Garros, it’s hard to believe Nadal would put himself in a position to possibly compete for three straight weeks rather than use that time to practice in Paris.

The upshot is that even should Nadal recover in time for Rome and Roland Garros, he will be far short of the clay-court match experience he has long thrived on. Since 2005, the year Nadal first won Roland Garros, his typical spring has consisted of at least three and usually four tournaments prior to arriving in Paris. Of course, he’s also frequently won them, a dominance that helps Nadal sharpen skills, generate confidence, and head into Roland Garros heavily locked and loaded.

Only twice has Nadal played as few as two tournaments in the weeks leading up to Roland Garros. The first came in the COVID year of 2020, when Roland Garros rescheduled itself to take place two weeks after the conclusion of the US Open. Amid such a truncated European clay-court season, Nadal only played one tournament, losing in the quarterfinals of Rome to Diego Schwartzman; then again, curtailed preparation was the case for all, so in that sense, the entire field was on equal footing at Roland Garros (Nadal beat Schwartzman in the semis before going on to win the title for a 13th time). Last year, Nadal competed at a mere two events, between them only playing five matches. But, per usual, he ended up lifting the champion’s trophy in Paris. Who even wins their club tournament 14 times, much less the most physically demanding event in all of tennis? As I’ve told several friends who live and die by Nadal’s wins and injuries, he’s given them triple the joy any fan of a particular pro can hope for.

While preparation is important for any player, its significance strikes to the heart of Nadal’s very operating system—not just for what Roland Garros means to him personally, but also how it fits into his big picture view of the entire sport and even life itself. Much as Nadal has earned the honor of “King of Clay,” don’t expect to see him even glance at a crown. Nadal’s uncle Toni coached him for most of his career. From childhood to the pros, Toni shaped Rafa as both player and person. “When you think you are king of the world,” Toni once said, “you are really stupid in my opinion, because in this life every person is important.” That grounded sensibility shapes every step Nadal takes. Legend are the tales of how, under Toni’s tutelage, young Rafa was never indulged, coddled, or enabled in the way seen quite often from the minute a child wins his first two tournament matches.

Long before Nadal surfaced, my personal nickname for Roland Garros was “The Homework Slam.” While there’s a long history of players who needn’t play at all prior to a great run at Wimbledon, no tournament more than Roland Garros demands a rigorous commitment to practice, competition, point-building, and ceaseless adjustments with one’s footwork, technique, racquets, strings, shoes, socks—all the factors that comprise the mindset of an effective competitor. Dare to cut corners before or during Roland Garros and you will likely pay the price soon enough. And as the world has seen now for nearly 20 years, Nadal is as devoted and meticulous about his craft as any tennis player has ever been.

Having fallen out of the Top 10 in March for the first time since 2005, Nadal’s likely Roland Garros seeding also makes it possible for him to play such formidable opponents as Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz far earlier in the draw than might once have been the case. As much anguish as a Nadal-Djokovic round of 16 matchup could be for some, my belief is that it doesn’t mean a thing to Nadal. Throughout his entire career—never more than at Roland Garros—he’s known that the task is simple: Beat the seven men in front of you.

It’s not my manner to predict outcomes and therefore count anyone out or in. But my analysis of the current process is that Rome represents the key crossroads for Nadal. Be ready to play it, throw oneself into battle and hope the body emerges healthy regardless of outcome: That will be a sign Nadal is ready to compete at Roland Garros.

But show up in Paris without a single match since January? That could well be a betrayal of Nadal’s value system. Lacking match play, what signs will reveal to Nadal that he’s indeed done his homework? I daresay Nadal feels that if he isn’t prepared to give his all at Roland Garros that he would therefore be disrespecting everyone—his fellow players, officials, sponsors, and, most of all, the spectators who pay good money to witness first-rate competition.

So it may well be, Rome or nothing. And if it’s nothing, is it Paris?