First Rafael Nadal withdrew from the US Open, then Laver Cup. What happens now?

NEW YORK—It’s impossible to know what Rafael Nadal, who today announced he’ll miss his long-scheduled participation in Laver Cup, is thinking. Is he on the brink of retirement? Does he want to stretch his career out for one more appearance (maybe at the Davis Cup Final in Magala, Spain)? Does he want to play a fuller schedule in 2025, and experience the farewell tour he seemingly hoped for?

No one knows. But if anyone could guess with confidence, why not another Wimbledon champion from Spain, who just called it a career this year?

“I was so ready,” says Garbine Muguruza, who in April stepped away from the sport at age 30. “Life was sending me signals to me physically. I was just looking forward to that next chapter.”

More than ailments, though, the mental side of Muguruza led to her decision. She won the WTA Finals in 2021 and finished the season at a career-high No. 3. But she ended up playing her final match just over a year later, at a WTA 250 in Lyon. Not on Centre Court, where she twice lifted the Venus Rosewater Dish, nor in Madrid or a venue of similar prestige. So you never quite know.

Could we have already seen Nadal for the last time?

“He’s so ready,” Muguruza says when asked about Rafa’s future. “His body, his mind, just everything…

“It’s time to also enjoy his kid! I see him smiling all the time with his baby. I’m like, ‘Why are you on the court still? Go home, take the boat, go in Mallorca.’ I think he gave everything he had.”

Whether or not Nadal continues playing, it’s a safe bet he’ll remain busy. Much like Muguruza. She arrived in New York City fresh off a trip to Monterrey, Mexico, where she supported the WTA’s Abierto GNP Seguros. (Fun fact: this year’s Monterrey champion, Linda Noskova, was Muguruza’s final opponent.) She participated in a legends exhibition in Arthur Ashe Stadium. She practiced with rising star Mirra Andreeva. She shot content for Tennis Channel Spain. And on the first day of the US Open, she helped open the NASDAQ market by ringing the bell in Times Square.

“I thought I was going to be more at home, but it turns out I’m traveling so much—but in a nice way,” she says. “I’m not stressed, I’m not carrying my 55 racquets, I’m not nervous. I’m happy to travel in this way.”

“I’m just doing all the things that I couldn’t do before, spending time with my loved ones. Now I’m feeling that personal side, and before it was, everything professional.”

While one player has two Grand Slams and the other has 22, there are similarities between Muguruza and Nadal. They’re both driven by family. They each took their respective tours by storm with ferocious tennis that, at their peaks, were some of the best we’ve ever witnessed. They regularly represented their nation in international play.

One big difference? The way they’ve said goodbye. Nine months after her loss in Lyon, Muguruza told Women’s Health that she had “no intention” to come back, even though she hadn’t actually retired. Six more months passed before she made it official.

It’s hard to know him. Garbine Muguruza on Rafael Nadal

While Nadal has made it clear that he’s winding down, his off-ramp has been a constantly moving exit. Many felt it was coming at Roland Garros, but he played in Paris. The Olympics—where Nadal went 1-1 in singles, and teamed with Carlos Alcaraz in doubles—came and went. He skipped the US Open but said in August he would return to the court at Laver Cup. But a few weeks later, he withdrew from that event, yet left his playing status up in the air.

“It’s hard to know him,” says Muguruza. “He’s very shy.”

“We talked a little bit at the Laureus Awards in Madrid earlier this year. (Muguruza is a Laureus Ambassador.) He said, ‘This is my last year,’ but he didn’t share anything else. I don’t want to ask him personal questions.”

We’re left, then, to ask questions to those to know him. The common thread in the answers is how much everyone who has played—and often lost to—Nadal appreciates him as tennis’ ultimate warrior.

“Unfortunately I played him just twice, I wish I could have played him more,” said Matteo Berrettini at the US Open. The Italian faced Nadal in the 2019 semifinals, losing 7-6 (6), 6-4, 6-1.

“That match was very special. I still remember the feelings. I still remember the first set, I had two set points.”

It’s doubtful Berrettini will get another chance to stand on the opposite side of the net as Nadal (what an unseeded first-rounder that could be in Melbourne). But even if the 28-year-old ends his career 0-2 against Rafa, there’s no regrets. Quite the opposite.

“For me, it was an honor—it was more than that,” he said. “[My] generation, I was looking up to him, cheering for him, and then I had the chance to play against him.”

“We always say the same thing about him, Roger and Novak: they changed the perception of the sport. When you think about tennis everywhere in the world, [people are] going to recognize them. Hopefully we have a lot of guys now that, possibly, they can do the same thing.”

Andrey Rublev, who has a rare win on clay over Nadal (2021, in Monte Carlo), may not have been so fond of his match with Rafa at the US Open, in 2017, but he recalled it vividly.

“I remember it was fairytale two weeks,” said Rublev, who made his first Grand Slam quarterfinal after never having before gone past the third round. “It was not reality. I was playing insane. I was hitting everything with closed eyes. More lucky run than the level.”

The Russian needed more than luck against Nadal, however. He won just five games.

“And when I face Rafa—he destroy me, and that’s it. Very easy quarterfinal for him.”

Dominic Thiem is one of the many players to have fallen to Rafa at Flushing Meadows, but one of the very few to boast six career victories against him. Looking at the score of their 2018 quarterfinal—0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (5)—it’s hard to believe the Austrian didn’t earn a seventh.

It was an “epic” despite the result, Thiem told press (and whose match was worthy of the overused adjective).

I asked Thiem, who will retire this fall at the ATP tournament in Vienna, for his take on Nadal’s future. The 38-year-old has been tough to pin down this year, and Thiem’s response only accentuated that fact:

“The last time I saw him was in January in Brisbane, and back then … I think the situation back then was that I wanted to come back fully, he wanted to come back fully, so it was a completely different situation than it is now,” said Thiem, who has played just 10 matches this season, compared to Nadal’s 19.

“Since then, I haven’t seen him. I was in Mallorca in his academy in March for a practice week, but he was I think in Indian Wells or something. So I haven’t seen him for quite a while.”