Rafael Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev: Who will win, and why, on Day 2 at Roland Garros

Alexander Zverev vs. Rafael Nadal

Zverev and Nadal agree: Roland Garros brings out the best in Rafa.

“In some way, this place is magical for me, no?” Nadal says. “So happened a lot of times things that was difficult to imagine.”

“He becomes different,” Zverev says. “His ball becomes all of a sudden a few kilometers an hour faster. All of a sudden his footwork and foot speed becomes a lot faster. It’s more difficult to hit a winner, especially on Philippe Chatrier, which is a massive court, so he has a lot more space.”

The question now is: Just how much better can that court make the nearly 38-year-old version of Rafa, against one of the favorites for the title? His last match, a one-sided second-round loss to Hubert Hurkacz in Rome, wasn’t promising.

Nadal says that physically, he feels better than he did that day.

“In the practices, without a doubt I improved,” he says of his workouts in Paris. “Especially in terms of movements. I don’t feel the limitations that I felt in Rome in terms of running, both sides, so that’s a lot for me.”

The limitation, in Rafa’s mind, will come from his lack of match play.

“Of course, that [doesn’t mean] I’m gonna be out there on Monday and I’m gonna play incredible, no? I think going to be something very difficult to make that happen because I didn’t have under my shoulders enough moments to play that highest level.”

Zverev has been thinking about this rematch for two years, since he tore a ligament in his leg and brought a sadly premature end to their excellent 2022 semifinal in Chatrier. He’ll be as motivated as he’s ever been to win a match, but like Rafa, he’ll have his own mental battles to wage. He’ll be facing the best-ever at this event, someone who has beaten him in seven of 10 previous encounters, and someone the crowd will be fully behind. Even if Zverev starts well, and is the better player on the day, it won’t be easy for him to close.

A few days ago, I picked Zverev to win the tournament, which obviously meant I picked him to beat Rafa at Roland Garros—always a dangerous proposition. Nadal just seemed too far from his best to stay with a guy who is coming off a Masters 1000 title. Now, as their match gets closer and Rafa seems to feel better, doubts are creeping into my mind. As we’ve said for years, if Nadal is in the draw in Paris, he’s the favorite to win the tournament, full stop.

Chatrier does good things for Nadal. Let’s see if that court, and a chance to put a painful memory behind him, can do anything for Zverev this time, too. Winner: Zverev

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Marton Fucsovics

For the first two weeks of the clay swing, Tsitsipas looked like he would be a man to reckon with at the the season’s second Slam. He beat Zverev and Jannik Sinner on his way to the title in Monte Carlo, then reached the final in Barcelona the week after. But as so often happens on tour, he ran out of some gas after that. He lost his opener in Madrid, and blew a lead over Nicolas Jarrry in the quarters in Rome. Now the 2021 finalist is back where he typically belongs, in the second tier of Slam contenders.

Tstsipas may not have an easy first round, either. Fucsovics is one of the game’s strongest players and most forceful ball-strikers. He’s ranked 54th now, but has been as high as No. 31, and his two career titles have come on clay. He’ll also be something of an unknown for Tsitsipas; the two have played just once, five years ago.

Tsitsipas won that match, though, and he should be rested enough after a week and a half off to win this one, too. Winner: Tsitsipas

Danielle Collins vs. Caroline Dolehide

Collins, who is playing the best sustained tennis of her career in her final season, qualifies as a dark horse on the women’s side. Maybe not for the title, but definitely for a deep run. After winning her first WTA 1000 in Miami, she has gone 15-3, with a title, during the clay swing. She also reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros in 2020.

The 12th-ranked Collins and the 60th-ranked Dolehide, a fellow American, have played twice at the WTA level, in Guadalajara and Melbourne in 2022, and Collins has won comfortably both times. Dolehide, 25, is a power baseliner who has been ranked as high as No. 41, and if she’s hot she can do damage. But since January, Collins has mostly cut out the off days in early rounds that had plagued her in the past. Winner: Collins