By TennisWorld Contributing Editor Andrew Burton
The first part of each tennis year, encompassing the Australian Open, then Rotterdam/Marseille/Dubai, early rounds of the Davis Cup and Fed Cup, and the two big US hardcourt tournaments, always puts me in mind of the phony war at the start of World War 2. If you were Polish, Finnish or Norwegian, of course, it's another matter, but in historical memory the last big European war really got rumbling with the German Blitzkrieg in the West in spring 1940.
So it is with the tennis season: for me, the core part of the ATP season starts now, as players gather in Monte Carlo for the first clay Masters 1000 tournament, and we see again the loveliest tennis court on the planet, nestled in hills and overlooking the Mediterranean Sea. Although it's become conventional wisdom that there's a year long season, the next five months decide the biggest prizes, three of the Slams, and five of the Masters 1000s.
It looked, for a while, as if the ATP script was following a pattern. In 2006, Nadal established himself as a challenger on all surfaces to Federer (won in Dubai, finalist at Wimbledon, three winning finals on clay). In 2007, wins for Novak Djokovic in Miami and Montreal that he was ready to compete for the top prizes, abd he backed this up with a US Open final and a win in Melbourne. In 2008, the Big 3 were joined by Andy Murray; and in 2009, we had another first time US Open finalist, though this time Juan Martin Del Potro didn't follow the script and actually went and won the bloody thing.
!Woman What you see when you look at the players at the top of the Mens game reminds me of the classic optical illusion, the old lady and the young girl. Federer goes deep in all the slams, and Nadal owns the clay court season - that's the aged dame with the crooked nose. Challengers in their early 20s grow into their physical powers and round out their game, becoming the next big thing - the damsel in the furs with head tilted away.
All of which is a long winded run up to admitting that I don't have the foggiest idea how the clay court season is going to play out. Two months from now, we could be looking at a rerun of the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons, owned by Nadal with Federer dashing himself time and again against his main rival. Or this could be the year when the death grip Nadal has exerted over European clay is finally prised apart - and if you think that happened in 2009, let me remind you that Nadal went into Roland Garros one loss to Federer from having swept all four lead in tournaments. Nadal, famously, did suffer his first defeat at the French Open in 2009 - but this was to a player who backed it up with a run to the final, in the course of a breakout year run to the top 10 and the year end championship in London.
Nadal takes the court in Monte Carlo as the number 2 seed, a familiar spot - but the number 1 seed will be Djokovic, not Federer. You'd get no argument from me that Djokovic, going into Roland Garros in 2009, had been Nadal's main rival that season. But the 2010 version of Djokovic has become something of an enigma. He shows up to play tournaments, sometimes winning them. He's added Todd Martin to his coaching group, and talks a good game about wanting to develop an all court presence. But he was miserable at Indian Wells and Miami, and it looks to me as though technically his service motion has become a liability rather than a strength. If Djokovic rediscovers his form on clay, it won't come as a surprise, but at the moment that no 1 seeding looks a bit incongrous.
Murray goes into Monte Carlo as a wild card - literally and figuratively. Last year he had his best tournament on clay here, and he pushed Nadal hard in the semi final before falling in straight sets. The British press expected great things from Murray (when do they expect anything else) at the French Open, and his fortunes seemed to be given a boost when Nadal was bundled out of Murray's half of the draw. As it turned out, Murray didn't get as far as the semi final, courtesy of Fernando Gonzalez. Both Murray and Djokovic lost their first matches in Miami, and if they shared a plane trip to Europe I can see them sitting across from each other in First Class, each one trying to look slightly less miserable than the other.
Federer's whereabouts are a complete mystery. He didn't last much longer than Djokovic or Murray at Key Biscayne; after a Facebook photo showing a smiling Federer practicing on green clay (and a few paparazzi snaps showing a pretty dubious set of swimming trunks at a family lunch with Elin Nordgren, Tiger Woods' missus), Federer has stuck to his announced schedule and gone on vacation at an undisclosed location (Darth Federer adopting some of the modus operandi of Darth Cheney? There's even speculation at RF.com that he and his family are currently in India).
This time last year, Federer's game was, by his standards, something of a shambles. He'd travelled to Europe one racquet lighter after testing its impact properties on a Miami hardcourt; gotten married; and he showed up at the last minute at Monte Carlo only to be shown the door almost as soon as he arrived by fellow countryman Stanislaus Wawrinka. He didn't look much better in Rome, blowing a set lead and break leads in the second and third sets to Djokovic. Then, redemption. Federer's start to this year has been similarly volatile - what looked like his best form at the Australian Open, then shaky play on US hard courts, albeit with a lung infection being available as mitigation.
So, if you look at the top ranks in the ATP, you can't point to any player with momentum - unless it's Andy Roddick, and he won't be in Europe until Rome at the earliest, and no-one's honestly pencilling Roddick in as the Big Kahuna when the French Open comes around. Del Potro and Davydenko, burgeoning threats at the start of the year, are both crocked. Djokovic and Murray look more mentally discouraged than physically troubled; the world number one is no longer a lock for the semi final stage at anything other than the Majors; and the guy who's owned this part of the season for the last half decade was last seen agitatedly banging his knee at a changeover, prompting more frantic translation attempts than the security services handed phone intercepts from dubious types in Central Asia.
A century ago, when asked to predict the direction of the stock market, the financier J P Morgan famously suggested "it will fluctuate." So it is with the ATP as we get ready for the red dirt, which brings us to the question of who'll hold the no 1 ranking at the end of the clay season?
Federer enters with a pretty solid lead of about 3000 points over Djokovic, but you have to remember that these are post 2009 ATP Super Duper Extra Strength Double Your Fun Ranking Points. If Federer were to go out early in Roland Garros, and Nadal, Djokovic or Murray were to win the tournament, that would be a swing of about 3500 points right there. A 3000 points lead looks like a lot, but you can construct lots of scenarios in which it isn't enough for Federer to stay at the top when the last ball is struck in Paris.
Which brings me to the YouTube video which Cathleen and I worked on last weekend. We discuss the prospects of the "Big 4" for the clay season, and whether Federer will get past Sampras' mark of 286 weeks as ATP number 1 (he's safe until after Madrid, but if he's caught at the French Open he'll surrender the top spot with a total of 285 weeks).
Some of you may have seen this already, and you're welcome to subscribe to adburton1 at YouTube for future tennis related videos. I plan to keep up the YouTube video blogs every other week or so, mostly looking at stats insights. If there are topics you're interested, then suggestions are welcome.
Cathleen and her mom, Sylvia, are currently living large at the beach in British Columbia with our new puppy, Rosie (our three cats seem very relieved, and I think they're in for a shock when Rosie's back at the end of next week). I'm holding down the fort in Calgary, but I'm headed to BC tomorrow, and if I spend the vacation week live streaming clay court tennis Sylvia will likely not be best pleased. So let me know how it goes, will you?