Roland Garros men's final preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev

“I think both of us are expecting a tough battle,” Alexander Zverev said at the end of his pre-final press conference on Friday.

Coming from the lower seed, that statement might sound like wishful thinking. But in this case the words are surely accurate. While Alcaraz is the guy with two Grand Slam titles, the higher ranking, and the future-of-tennis status, it’s Zverev who leads their head-to-head 5-4. Not only that, Zverev won their previous meeting at Roland Garros, in the 2022 quarterfinals, and he won their most recent Grand Slam encounter, earlier this year at the Australian Open. If you couple those results with Zverev’s recent form—he’s on a 12-match clay-court win streak—you might start to wonder if Alcaraz will be the underdog on Sunday.

I’d say it’s a 50-50 proposition.

Alcaraz has the higher ceiling, and when he beats Zverev, he tends to beat him soundly—6-3, 6-1 at Indian Wells earlier this year; 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 at the US Open last year; 6-1 6-2 in the 2023 Madrid final. As we saw in his five-set win over Jannik Sinner, Alcaraz has a gear that no one else can find. He’s faster than Zverev, he has the better forehand, he has more variety, he’s the better volleyer, and he has won at this stage of a Slam before, while Zverev hasn’t. As for his motivation, Alcaraz has talked a lot about his desire to conquer Paris, the same way so many of his countrymen have—including his coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero.

“I wanted to put my name on that list of the Spanish players who won this tournament,” Alcaraz says. “Not only Rafa. Ferrero, Moya, Costa, a lot of Spanish players, legends from our sport that won this tournament, I really want to put my name on that list, as well.”

But he also knows that it was Zverev who stopped him once before in Chatrier.

“Sascha…he’s playing great tennis on clay,” Alcaraz said on Friday. “Big serve, big shots, really solid one.”

Alcaraz is right on at least two of those counts.

Zverev has been serving lights-out. His first-serve percentage has been in the 70s, and his ace counts have been high. That shot was also key to his win over Alcaraz at the Australian Open.

Zverev has also been exceptionally solid mentally through this tournament. He beat Rafael Nadal in straight sets. He came back from 1-4 in the fifth to beat Tallon Girekspoor. He came back from two sets to one down against Holger Rune. He took punches from Alex De Minaur and Casper Ruud and ground them down in the end. Zverev has been very good at staying calm, moving on to the next point, and powering through any adversity he’s faced. As he said before the tournament started, if he’s playing well, he knows he can beat anyone.

I wanted to put my name on that list of the Spanish players who won this tournament. Not only Rafa. Ferrero, Moya, Costa, a lot of Spanish players, legends from our sport. —Carlos Alcaraz

As for the German’s motivation, he may have more of it than Alcaraz. Zverev is older, and has yet to win a Slam. He was two points away at the US Open in 2020, and he had a chance to beat Nadal at Roland Garros two years ago, only to be taken off the court in a wheelchair. This is a career-defining moment for Zverev, in a way that it might not quite be yet for the 21-year-old Alcaraz.

As I wrote above, this one feels 50-50. Alcaraz can rise higher than Zverev, but he can also go lower at certain moments. When the draw came out, I picked Zverev to beat Alcaraz in the final. I haven’t been wrong so far. Winner: Zverev