Will Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina win rematch of IW final? Miami Preview and Picks

Before each day's play at the Miami Open, we'll preview and predict three must-see matches—stream them all on the Tennis Channel app.

Jannik Sinner vs. Frances Tiafoe

Tiafoe says his new coach, Mark Kovacs, is “a little bit of a drill sergeant.” He certainly sounds strict when it comes to what he makes his player drink—no alcohol, and a gallon of water a day.

Right now, the American wouldn’t have it any other way.

“It’s starting to come together,” Tiafoe say of his game, “and it feels good.”

After making that statement, he went out and proved himself right. He saved two match points on his way to beating defending champ Jakub Mensik 13-11 in a third-set tiebreaker. Then, a little more than 24 hours later, he showed off the fruits of his fitness labors by beating Terence Atmane 6-4 in the third. Tiafoe looked gassed at some points during that match, but pushed himself across the finish line.

What’s his reward? His first Miami quarterfinal since 2019, and his first meeting with Jannik Sinner since 2024.

Tiafoe will surely take that trade-off. If you want to win a big title, you have to go through Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz at some point. This match also continues a theme of this tournament: Improving Americans putting their games to the test against the world’s No. 1 and 2. Seb Korda did it against Alcaraz, and came away a winner. Alex Michelsen did it against Sinner, and nearly won a set. Tiafoe should take heart from both of those results.

Of course, he’ll need to do more than that. Sinner leads their head to head 4-1, and he won their last match, in the 2024 Cincy final, 7-6, 6-2. Since the start of Indian Wells, he has won all nine of his matches in straight sets.

But it’s hard to know what to make of his 7-5, 7-6 (4) win over Michelsen. On the minus side for Sinner, the American broke his serve and took over the match for much of the second set. On the plus side, Sinner kept his cool and was perfect when he had to be, in the second-set tiebreaker.

Tiafoe has been solid and resilient, and less flashy than usual, in Miami. He saved 10 of 13 break points in his last two matches, and kept his winner and error counts low. That may not be a bad place to start against Sinner. In the Indian Wells final two weeks ago, Daniil Medvedev stayed consistent, didn’t try many angles, and fought Sinner to a near-draw from the baseline.

Tiafoe obviously isn’t Medvedev. What will be interesting will be finding out what this newly committed version of himself can be. Winner: Sinner

Coco Gauff vs. Karolina Muchova

Gauff has a 5-0 record against Muchova, but she’d rather not be reminded of that fact.

“I don’t think about the head-to-head or anything when I play her,” she says. “I definitely think that, every time I play her, it’s a tough match, and I expect the high level that she’s going to bring, like she does every match.”

Gauff is right about Muchova’s generally high level. She’s been ranked as high as No. 8, and is currently 11th. Last month, she won her second—can it possibly only be her second?—career title, in Doha. But she doesn’t bring her best against Coco. Muchova has won just one set in their five meetings, and she’s lost three sets to her 6-1.

Despite those one-sided numbers, it’s easy to understand why Gauff wouldn’t put much stock in her own dominance. Yes, she makes Muchova hit extra balls and try to do too much, and yes, she tracks down her touch shots and passes her when she comes to the net. But it’s still strange that a player as polished as Muchova, who has more than one way to beat an opponent, hasn’t figured anything out against Gauff.

She may be getting closer. Muchova finally won a set in their most recent match, at the Australian Open. She should feel confident after her title in Doha, and comfortable on Miami’s hard courts.

The question is: Will Gauff finally be feeling comfortable on them, too? This is her first semifinal at her hometown 1000, and her topsy-turvy three-set win over Belinda Bencic on Tuesday felt cathartic. Nothing was smooth or easy, but Gauff won by going into full-scrap mode down the stretch. That’s just the kind of thing that has worked against Muchova in the past. Winner: Gauff

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina

Should we care that this semifinal pits No. 1 against 2, and feels like it should be for the title? Or should we just be happy that we get to see the two best players in the world tee it up again?

I’m going with the second option. After their Indian Wells thriller, I want to see as much of these two as I can, whatever the round may be.

Sabalenka won in IW, after saving a match point, 8-6 in a third-set tiebreaker. Put that together with the excellent matches they played in Riyadh in November and Melbourne in January, and it feels like the start of tennis’s next great rivalry. These two twin towers of power have had close matches on big stages for years, but right now they’re alone at the top of the WTA mountain.

Sabalenka has a slight edge in their H2H 9-7, and they’ve split two three-set matches in 2026. They’ve also had similar success in Miami. Sabalenka is 14-6 there, and won the title last year. Rybakina is 12-5, and was a finalist in 2023 and 2024.

Over the long haul, Sabalenka has had more consistent success than Rybakina. She’s a better athlete and mover, and plays with more shape and margin on her ground strokes. She’s been No. 1 for more than 80 weeks.

But Rybakina has advantages of her own. In Indian Wells, she was one point from winning her third straight significant final over Sabalenka. She just dug out a hard-fought comeback win over Jessica Pegula in the quarters on Wednesday. She likes a fast court. And, after a largely lost season in 2025, she seems to be rediscovering how well she can play, and how high she might age able to rise.

“I’ll need to serve well and really take care of my game, knowing that on the other side, she can hit a lot of good shots, also winners, good serve,” Rybakina says. “We’ll try to focus on myself more, try to stay somehow fresh for the match, and we’ll see again what’s going to happen.” Winner: Rybakina