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NEW YORK—Whatever else may obtain on the eve of the U.S. Open semifinal clash between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, this much is certain: Federer is beautifully positioned to collect a little New York-style payback, and to emerge at the end of this Grand Slam as the man who spoiled Djokovic’s almost perfect year.
Given the way Djokovic has run herd over all comers in 2011, it’s easy to forget or discount that, just 12 months ago at the same stage of this event and on the very same court where they will meet, Federer had two match points against Djokovic, who slipped the noose and went on to win. Federer has a right to feel that Djokovic owes him.
Of course, Federer—now No. 3 in the rankings behind No. 1 Djokovic and Rafael Nadal—carved out a pound of flesh at the French Open earlier this year, when he ended Djokovic’s near-record winning streak (at 43 matches) in the semifinals. To beat him again at the U.S. Open would send Federer’s stock zooming, no matter what happened in the final, because Nadal himself has been flummoxed by Djokovic all year, having lost all five of their meetings.
So what are the chances that Federer can pull off the upset? Better than you might think—if you understand that a player can be flying high while still flying under the radar. Much attention has been lavished at this event on defending champion Nadal and his current nemesis, Djokovic. But Federer has been playing some devastating tennis.
The promoters have managed to hide Federer right out in the open. Take his last match, against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga—it was scheduled for Wednesday night, after an already long and full day (thanks to the backlog created by rain). The match was interrupted early on by rainy mist, and by the time Federer crushed Tsonga in straights only Federer’s most devoted fans had the energy—or desire—to pay attention. But note: Tsonga is the same guy who upset Federer at Wimbledon; here, Federer hammered him, losing just 10 games in three sets.
It’s been that kind of fortnight for Federer. He’s lost just one set so far, in the fourth round to Croatian bombardier Marin Cilic. Looking ahead to Djokovic, Federer said, “I think we're both gonna play aggressive. I like playing against him because it's a battle of the baseline a bit if you like. He’s taken it up to a bit of a higher level, but mostly in terms of confidence.”
As puffed-up as Djokovic is at the moment, Federer’s record against him on hard courts is an outstanding 11-8. Granted, Djokovic has been an entirely different player this year, and has beaten Federer three times in four 2011 meetings. But Djokovic has also showed signs of slowing down (he couldn’t possibly ratchet it up, right?) in recent weeks.
