The editors of TENNIS.com preview all four Australian Open semifinals.
What Federer needs to do to win:
It’s no secret that Federer’s return game isn’t the equal of his service game. But if he wants to win, he needs to focus on pushing Nadal back off the baseline with his returns. The match-up between their games has always favored Nadal, whose heavy topspin forehand typically goes cross-court, right to Federer’s one-handed backhand, and often at a height that makes it tough to handle. If Roger takes that play away, he ought to be in good shape.
What Nadal needs to do to win:
There’s been a bit of Hamlet about Nadal ever since Novak Djokovic manhandled him six times last year. What Nadal needs to do most is play with confidence and a loose arm. If he serves well and is able to control the ensuing rallies, he ought to be able to hold with relative ease. And given that Federer is 30, it’s in Nadal’s interest to turn the match into a protracted, physical, punishing battle of attrition.
The pick: Federer in four sets.
Nadal came within a hair’s breadth of going down two sets to none in his last match, against Tomas Berdych. He blew a few leads and dodged a number of bullets in that match, and admitted later that he felt “nervous.” Nadal has been struggling since the fall, and the whipping Federer laid on him at the ATP World Tour Finals in November has to be there in the back of his mind.
More Previews:
—Clijsters vs. Azarenka
—Kvitova vs. Sharapova
—Nadal vs. Federer
—Djokovic vs. Murray