Shanghai Final Preview: Jannik Sinner—confirmed year-end No. 1—vs. Novak Djokovic, seeking his 100th title

“I’m working on being difficult to play against,” Hurkacz said after his not-as-close-as-it-may-sound, 6-3, 6-4 win over Sebastian Korda in the Shanghai semis on Saturday.

That’s a worthy goal for any tennis player, even if it isn’t the most specific. Just ask Hurkacz’s opponent in Sunday’s final.

“I’m thinking only to try and rest and recover for tomorrow, because Hubi is so tough to play,” Rublev said after his 7-6 (7), 6-3 win over Grigor Dimitrov in Saturday’s other semi. “He’s one of the players you don’t want to face because he can beat everyone—with his style of the game, the way he serves, the way he hits the ball.”

Right now, “the way he serves” would seem to be the most important, and imposing, of Hurkacz’s traits. He put on a clinic with that stroke in his match against Korda, where he won 40 of 47 points on his first serve and didn’t face a break point.

Hurkacz and Rublev recently shared the court together at Laver Cup.

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Hurkacz has served his way through a couple of three-setters this week, but Korda is the only seed he has faced so far. He’ll be moving up a level or two when he takes on the fifth-seeded Rublev, who is winding up the best season of his career. The Russian and the Pole have played four times, and each has won twice. This will be their first meeting of 2022, and it will come on a court that, according to at least one disgruntled player—i.e., Daniil Medvedev—isn’t as fast as it once was. A slower court should, in theory, help the steadier Rublev, but it didn’t take much out of the sting out of Hurkacz’s serve in the semis.

Who might have the edge, motivations wise? Each man will be going for his second Masters 1000—Hurkacz won in Miami in 2021, Rublev won in Monte Carlo this year. Rublev is a solid fifth in the race to Turin, while Hurkacz has moved up to 13th this week, and could move to No. 11 with a title here. That would put him in striking distance of the Top 8 that go to the ATP Finals.

Rublev is the better of the two most of the time, but Hurkacz would seem to have more momentum after the way he won his semifinal. If his serve continues to click like that, he’ll be as difficult to play as he hopes. But I’ll say Rublev, who hasn’t lost a set this week, will find a way to counter him. Winner: Rublev

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