Shanghai Final Preview: Jannik Sinner—confirmed year-end No. 1—vs. Novak Djokovic, seeking his 100th title

Jannik Sinner clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking with his semifinal win over Tomas Machac in Shanghai on Saturday. It makes sense that he’ll celebrate that milestone with a final against Novak Djokovic. A year ago, the Italian began his rise to the top spot by taking three of four matches from the Serb. He closed out 2023 by winning two nail-biters, at the ATP Finals (round-robin stage; Djokovic turned the tables in the title match) and the Davis Cup Final, and started 2024 with a surprisingly convincing four-set victory over Djokovic at his favorite event, the Australian Open.

It looked as if Sinner vs. Djokovic would be the rivalry to watch this season, but they haven’t met since. Which only makes their eighth encounter more intriguing.

Sinner will look to take home his third Masters 1000 title of 2024, after Miami and Cincinnati, while putting even more distance between himself and the rest of the ATP pack in the rankings. Djokovic, meanwhile, will look to become the third member of the men’s 100-title club, after Jimmy Connors (109) and Roger Federer (103). He’ll also be trying to win his first regular tour event of the season.

With Rafael Nadal’s retirement announcement last week, Djokovic can now officially be called the best male player of the Open era—the GOAT, if you will. But he won’t be the favorite in this final, for a few reasons.

Sinner leads their head-to-head 4-3, and he won their last two meetings. He likes a fast hard court, like the one in Shanghai, and he has played exceptionally well on it this week. He’s dropped just one set, and was in easy control against No. 5 seed Daniil Medvedev in a 6-1, 6-4 quarterfinal romp.

Maybe more important, though, is Djokovic’s physical state. The 37-year-old has finally begun to show his age in 2024, and that was true again in his semifinal win over Taylor Fritz. Djokovic, who has worn a sleeve on his right knee since having surgery on it in the summer, felt something on his left side in the second set against Fritz, and had a trainer massage his left hip. He survived that set after the American double-faulted on a crucial point in the tiebreaker, but having to go three might have been dicey for the Serb.

“It always takes it out of me, these kinds of battles, but particularly towards the end of the tournament,” Djokovic said. “I had some issues here and there on the court, physically, yesterday and today. But I managed to overcome it.”

I did not want to get to a third set, and I’m just glad to overcome in two.

Djokovic found a way against Fritz. Can he do the same thing against a tougher opponent in Sinner? When Novak really wants something, he can still get it—witness his win over Alcaraz in the Olympic gold medal match. Djokovic won’t need this one as much as the gold, but getting title No. 100, and showing that he can still compete with a No. 1 player going into 2025, will surely be motivating factors for him.

The Shanghai crowd will give Djokovic their usual raucous support, and I think he’ll make it a competitive scrap. But I’ll take Sinner, on this court, in this form, in the type of big match he’s come to love.

Winner: Sinner