Better late than never, even if tennis fans in New York don’t agree. It will be the Shanghai Rolex Masters, rather than the US Open, that will play host to the fourth meeting between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in 2017.
For an hour or so, it looked as if we might get a repeat of what happened at Flushing Meadows. Just as he had in New York, Juan Martin del Potro won the first set from Federer (with Nadal waiting for the winner). This time, though, rattled by the pro-Federer crowd, the Argentine couldn’t keep landing his forehand missiles, while Federer found a way, with a mix of guile and power, to wrest control of the rallies from him.
That’s also what Federer has done to Nadal in their three meetings so far in 2017. He won in five sets in Melbourne, and in straight sets in Indian Wells and Miami. That recent record, and the fact that Shanghai will be played on a fast hard court, should make Federer the favorite to win again, right?
Nadal may not feel that way. Yes, Federer likes fast courts, but Rafa had the most success against him this year at the Australian Open, which featured a newly quickened surface of its own. Nadal is also on a 16-match hard-court win streak at the moment, and his confidence has grown with each round in Beijing and Shanghai. We know about Federer’s improved backhand; Nadal’s is also as solid as it has ever been right now.
That Federer backhand will be key. Can he hit it with the same deadly-accurate abandon that he did in their first three matches? It hasn’t been quite as good this week, but that doesn’t mean he won’t step forward and crack it when he needs to against Rafa, especially if Rafa leaves his crosscourt forehand short. For his part, Nadal should be ready for the Federer attack. In his close, well-played win over Marin Cilic in the semifinals, Rafa was forced to fend off the Croat’s crosscourt two-handed backhand over and over.
