What if they threw a multimillion-dollar end-of-year championship and no one showed up? That was never going to happen to the Masters Cup in Shanghai, of course, but you might not have been sure over the last few weeks. As the tournament got closer, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, James Blake, and David Nalbandian all discussed their reluctance to finish the season with one more plane ride around the world. It turns out that Nalbandian and Blake didn’t have to worry about it—they didn’t make it anyway. But Nadal, the No. 1 player in the world who is suffering from knee tendonitis, made good on the threat and stayed home during the richest event of the year.
Chalk it up to Nadal having already clinched the No. 1 ranking and thereby removing all drama from the MC, just as Federer has done the last few years. Chalk it up to another clash between those old foes, the ATP and the ITF, who is running the Davis Cup final the folloing week, a highly meaningful team event that both Nalbandian and Nadal are eager to play. Chalk it up to the tour’s longstanding goal of hiding its version of a Grand Slam from Western viewers and sponsors by staging it on a faceless indoor court in China in November.
But there it is. It's a major accomplishment for first-timers Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, and Juan Martin del Potro; an obscenely lucrative quasi-exhibition for Federer and Djokovic; another stop on the endless road for Nikolay Davydenko. Where does that leave the eighth man, Andy Roddick? I had heard whispers that he was also considering skipping the MC, but those were put to rest when I saw his reaction after he beat Simon in Paris to qualify: He was happy.
I’m sure everyone in Shanghai is happy not to have to play Nadal. Who knows, maybe quasi-exo status of the whole thing will help everyone loosen up and play go-for-broke tennis once the first ball is hit on Sunday.
Gold Group
The golds—Djokovic, del Potro, Tsonga, and Davydenko—are up first. You might also call this the “easy group,” since it lacks Federer and the hottest player of the fall, Andy Murray. Djokovic starts against del Potro, a man he shredded at the U.S. Open in 2007, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3. The Serb came out of the gate firing in that match; he had clearly decided to take it to del Potro and get the big man on the move. In theory, that should happen again on the quick Shanghai courts, but Djokovic has had trouble taking his game to anyone over the last few months. He’s been mired at the baseline, scratching his head, while del Potro has improved every part of his arsenal.
After that, you’d think that the momentum Tsonga built in Paris would carry across the oceans and past Davydenko, who has to fight for his life on fast surfaces. Tsonga also owns two wins over Djokovic this fall, but somehow I don’t think Novak is going to let him make it three. The highlight of this round robin may be a very intriguing matchup between two up-and comers to watch next year, Tsonga and del Potro. My prediction: Winners.
Semifinalists: Tsonga, del Potro
Red Group
Poor Andy—or poor rich Andy, anyway. He wins and celebrates in Paris, he flies to China, he plays Murray and Federer. The first of those matches, scheduled for Monday night, should be an interesting tactical display—it will be craftiness versus competitiveness. Murray is very good indoors and has handled Roddick in the past, but the American has also reached two semifinals at the Masters Cup and had match points on Federer at a third. He also doesn’t like to lose to that punk kid.
On the other side, well, it’s Federer, and he seems to like this tournament a little. He’s won it four times and played two of the finest matches of his career the last two years there in dismissing Nadal. He may be unsure of his health, but Federer rarely shows signs of mental fatigue, even at this stage of the year. He plays Simon, who beat him in Toronto this summer; but the Frenchman, a surprise participant, may be nervous for this one. He may need a match or two to get used to the thin atmosphere at the top of the mountain.
Semifinalists: Federer, Murray
**Semifinals: Federer, Murray advance
Final: Murray**
After talking about all these marquee matchups, I’m looking forward to seeing them unfold. Something about the Masters Cup, the fact that it’s a reward in itself, that the players can feel like they belong among the best just by showing up, tends to allow for some great tennis. If the courts are quick, that will help the all-court attacks of Federer, Murray, and Tsonga. Don’t call it a tournament or a quasi-exo; think of it as a weeklong showcase of a men’s game that is slowly but surely getting off the baseline and venturing to every part of the court. Check it out on the Tennis Channel if you have the chance. You’re going to miss it when it’s gone next month.