Sighting Land: Indian Wells Previews

We’ve left the island of Oz far behind. We’ve flown over the murky, misty, sometimes brackish waters of February. Now, at last, we’ve sighted the land otherwise known as the 2010 tennis season. It’s hard land, made of desert, steel, and asphalt, and the palm trees have to fight to keep from having their heads chopped off in the wind. But it’s bright there, and not too humid, the perfect place to get off the plane and run around. It's also, luckily for most of us, the perfect place to watch other, younger people run around.

That’s the part we know about Indian Wells. What we have less of an idea about this time around is which of those younger people might win. This may not be unusual on the women’s side, where the Williams sisters traditionally let the rest of the WTA field have their 15 minutes in the sun. But it’s truer than ever for the men, where three of the top contenders come in with question marks penciled lightly next to their names. Roger Federer has been sick, Rafael Nadal has been hurt, and Novak Djokivic has been busting racquets, breathing heavily, spouting tears, punching himself, and otherwise leaving everything he’s got on the courts of Dubai and Serbia. We may be in for that rarest of events on the men’s tour: a surprise.

First Quarter

Federer is just getting back onto the court after weathering a lung infection, but he couldn’t ask for a better place to recuperate and make a few bucks while he's at it. It’s conceivable that he’ll be rusty, and it's conceivable that he’ll take a match or two to find his form, which has been the case at a few Masters events in the past. But is it conceivable, even over the course of just two or three sets, that he’ll be rusty enough to lose to Victor Hanescu, or Juan Ignacio Chela, or Marcos Baghdatis? Actually, the Baghdatis match might be a good one; back when he was a contender himself, the Cypriot reached the semis in Indian Wells.

On the other side of Federer’s quarter is Andy Roddick. This isn't the most awesome news that the American could have received, but he's been his usual steady self so far this year, and, after skipping Davis Cup, he won’t come in having done too much roadwork. Roddick is slotted to play Gael Monfils in the round of 16. The question for the Frenchman may be the opposite of Roddick’s—how will his own Davis Cup success this past weekend leave him feeling? Mentally drained, or emotionally energized? Either way, I hope to see Monfils play Richard Gasquet in the second round. To witness French panache on a tennis court, you have to find it early in a big event.

Sleepers: Marcos Baghdatis, Radek Stepanek

Semifinalist: Federer

Second Quarter

Where does Andy Murray fit into all of this? He’s not sick, he’s not hurt, he’s not tired—maybe every pro should develop a video game addiction; it seems to serve Murray’s body well. Last year he beat Federer here before losing to Nadal in a windy, annoying final. One more thing: It’s hard to top Murray’s draw. Andreev is the seed nearest him, then Karlovic, then Ferrer. Then, on the other side of the section, Tsonga, and then, all the way at the bottom, Soderling.

Speaking of which, this might be a telling event for Soderling: How will he meet heightened expectations? So far this year, he’s failed miserably at it, with a first-round loss in Melbourne, and succeeded modestly, with a title in Rotterdam. The latter was indoors, which is Sod’s turf. Desert wind? It can get to him and his towering toss. You might think Indian Wells and its slow hard courts would be kinder to Tsonga, who can generate pace off pretty much anything, and he did play a minor classic here a couple of years ago against Nadal. But he remains supremely unpredictable, as his third-round exit in 2009 attests. A round of 16 matchup with Soderling would be a battle of power and athleticism at its herkiest and jerkiest. Not that it wouldn't be fun to watch them take their cuts.

Player to watch early: Michael Llodra. Another Frenchman to catch while you can. At least go for the backhand volley. There may never be another quite like it.

Semifinalist: Murray

Third Quarter

Davydenko rides the top rung here. Consider the Russian another desert curiosity. His efficient blend of offense and defense was designed for the slow-court era—it may even be the first pure product of it—yet he’s only reached the fourth round once. Like Soderling, it could be a telling tournament for Kolya. He’s stepped forward to No. 5 over the last six months and has begun to tentatively be mentioned as a real Slam contender—I’ve even challenged the guy to finally go for it, but he hasn’t listened yet. So is Davydenko at least a contender in an event as significant as Indian Wells? He did win in Key Biscayne a couple of years ago, but that’s a tournament where the top guys can be a little worn down, and Davydenko specializes in picking off players when their guard is down, especially late in the season—money doesn't know if it was won in Paris or Kuala Lumpur, after all. He could play Gulbis in the second round, and Verdasco, whom he beat in five in Melbourne, in the fourth.

Wait, I’ve been talking about Davydenko this whole time without noticing who’s on the other side of his section: Rafael Nadal, the defending champion, who’s seeded No. 3. The early part of his draw is TBD at the moment—there’s Julien Benneteau, Mario Ancic, and three qualifiers to be named later. But there’s some danger after that, in the hulking form of either John Isner—who has suddenly become an intriguing figure in any bracket—or Sam Querrey. The desert, its golf courses, and its slow tennis courts suit Nadal; he used this event to break out of a slump way back in 2007.

Sleeper: John Isner

Semifinalist: Davydenko

Fourth Quarter

Novak Djokovic makes a rare appearance on the bottom rung of a Masters bracket. Will his DC win last weekend give him momentum, or leave him flat when he returns to the tour as usual? There are a couple of tricky players near him—Fish, Kohlschreiber—and potentially an even trickier one farther away in Marin Cilic. At the risk of repeating myself one too many times, I will boldly state that this could very well be a telling event for Cilic, too. He has the breakout Slam performance behind him, he has the contemporary, no-glaring-weakness, no-spectacular-weapon game that works on these courts, and he now has the wise words of new part-time coach Goran Ivanisevic ringing in he ears—hold on, is that a good thing? Best of all, Cilic has the draw. Moya, Bellucci, Ferrero, Monaco: These are the clay-court lovers whom he’ll likely have to face to reach the quarters.

First-round match for Americans to watch: Taylor Dent vs. Ryan Harrison

Semifinalist: Cilic

Semifinals: Murray d. Federer; Cilic d. Davydenko

Final: Cilic d. Murray

Champion: Marin Cilic

!Jh*

Regarding the Indian Wells women's draw, I'd be tempted to say that with the cats away, the mice get to come out and play. And this would be a fair assessment of an event where the top three seeds are Svetlana Kuznetsova, Caroline Wozniacki, and Victoria Azarenka, while Venus and Serena Williams are elsewhere. Except that this year two other cats—athletic ones at that—have returned. Tucked away in the quiet regions of the draw you’ll find the names of (unseeded) Justine Henin and (No. 14 seed) Kim Clijsters—I was startled, in a good way, to see them as I scanned down the names. In the last two majors, they’ve come from similarly obscure positions to win a title and reach a final. Is Indian Wells the next tournament to get the Belgian treatment?

First Quarter

Kuznetsova's top billing didn’t come with any perks. She'll get Clijsters in the round of 16. But should we worry about Kim II’s consistency, after her sleepwalk through Melbourne? She didn’t react well to a bad day, and Alisa Kleybanova, her likely third-round opponent, is good enough to make her pay for another. If Clijsters builds momentum, though, you have to pick her over Kuzzie. She’s 7-1 against the Russian.

The other side of this section, where Jankovic is scheduled to meet Pennetta in the fourth round, is more haphazard. At first glance, it seems like Kvitova, Cibulkova, and Peer might find themselves with a shot at going deeper in the draw.

First-round match to watch: Cornet vs. Suarez Navarro. Nice games on both of them, though neither is a world-beater

Semifinalist: Clijsters

Second Quarter

Here we have a collection of what you might call last year’s girls: Zvonareva and Ivanovic, the 2009 IW finalists, as well as semifinalists Pavlyuchenkova and Azarenka. And you can throw two-time champ Hantuchova in with them. Who can rekindle the fire? Azarenka and Pavlyuchenkova have started well this year, while Ivanovic, as we know, hasn’t. Zvonareva remains a mystery. Seemingly unbeatable during certain weeks, she nonetheless disappears, due to injury or emotional overload, for long stretches. Her draw—she might play Ivanovic early—gives her a pretty good shot at making another reappearance.

Two other names stand out: Wickmayer and Stosur. They were two of the tour’s most improved in 2009, and they play appealingly physical games. Does either have enough to make herself this year's girl?

Others to watch: Melanie Oudin, who plays Italy’s Roberta Vinci. Blast from the past qualifier Karolina Sprem. And blast from the future qualifier Michelle Larcher de Brito

Semifinalist: Wickmayer

Third Quarter

Pity Magdalena Rybarkova. Here she is in the softest section of a Premier draw that she’ll likely see in her life, and whose name shows up right beside hers? Polona Hercog, maybe? Melinda Czink, hopefully? The pushing-40 Kimiko Date Krumm, please? No, it's Justine Henin, who owns nearly as many majors as every other player in the tournament combined.

Who else is here? Dementieva is the top seed, followed by Radwanska, and then Bartoli, and then Schiavone, and then Rezai, and then . . . do I need to continue? Well, actually, Sabine Lisicki is also around, and she’s dangerous if you catch in the right two-hour window. I look forward to a fourth-round sequel to the Henin-Dementieva tussle in Melbourne. We should have gotten a third set that time, anyway.

Another ghostly name from the past: Anna Chakvetadze. Is she ready to do anything again? She might get Kuznetsova early.

Sleeper: Bartoli

Semifinalist: Henin

Fourth Quarter

Recently I made the highly controversial statement that Caroline Wozniacki’s No. 3 ranking was of dubious worth. After all, she followed her runner-up appearance at the U.S. Open with a dreary upset loss in Melbourne. Here’s her chance to prove me wrong. Wozniacki is seeded No. 2, and she has avoided the Belgians. But her draw is the type of test she needs to pass to prove she’s ready to be a permanent part of the uppermost WTA echelon, rather than another temporary visitor. She has the consistency, but does she have the firepower? I know Wozniacki is young, and questioning her staying power at this point isn’t exactly fair, but we’ve got to take our drama where we find it.

Wozniacki may need to out-steady the persistent Maria Kirilenko in the third round, and then hold off the erratic power of Petrova in the fourth. After that, she could be looking at more big hitting from Li Na or Maria Sharapova, or the flat pace of Jie Zheng. I’m guessing Sharapova will find a better form at this tournament. She banked a quick title in Memphis, and while she may be tempted, I don’t think she's ready to cash in her chips for a front-row Lakers ticket quite yet.

First-round match for really hardcore fans of American tennis to watch: Vania King vs. Christina McHale

Semifinalist: Sharapova

Semifinals: Clijsters d. Wickmayer; Henin d. Sharapova

Final: Henin d. Clijsters

Champion: Justine Henin

*

Indian Wells is on the Tennis Channel and Fox Sports full-time this year, from this Saturday onward. See the TV schedule here. You'll also find it full time on this blog starting Friday. I'm heading out that day and will be there until the last ball is hit, or missed, whichever the case may be.