Sister Special

The Indian Wells women’s draw was once notable for the fact that Venus and Serena Williams were never in it; now, with Maria Sharapova beginning a suspension, their presence seems more necessary than ever. While the Sharapova story hangs over the WTA at the moment, the women's BNP Paribas Open should be intriguing for other reasons. How will the crowd react to Venus’ return? Will Serena be especially motivated to win after having to pull out in the semis last year? And will any of her pursuers—Angelique Kerber, Garbiñe Muguruza, Simona Halep and Agnieszka Radwanska among them—show that they can get any closer to her? Here’s a look at which of those questions, and more, might be answered in the next two weeks.

Things begin with a bang at the top: The top-seeded Serena, the fifth-seeded Halep and the 10th-seeded Venus are all in the same section.

Last year Serena got off to a tearful and tight start in her return after 14 years away; theoretically, that shouldn't be a problem this time around. She’ll begin against either Irina-Camelia Begu or Laura Siegemund; the first seed she could face is Kiki Mladenovic.

Venus will make her return, but I don’t foresee the same nervous emotion from her that her sister showed last year—has Venus ever walked on court without her game face on? She'll begin against either Kurumi Nara or Teliana Pereira; Venus is 2-0 against Nara, and has never played Pereira.

As for Halep, she’s one of the more interesting cases in this draw. She’s the defending champion, and she had her biggest successes last year on U.S. hard courts. Right now, she could use a a little success: Halep comes to Indian Wells having lost three straight first-round matches, and with her ranking down to No. 5; an early loss here would likely send her tumbling further. She'll try to avoid another first-round defeat against either Taylor Townsend or Vania King.

Semifinalist: S. Williams

If you’re searching for a dark-horse titlist, Radwanska isn’t a bad place to look. After a strong last few months, she’s up to No. 3 in the world, and she reached the final here in 2014. Outside of a possible opener against Dominika Cibulkova, her draw looks manageable. The second seed in this section is Petra Kvitova, who is 4-4 so far in 2016 and down to No. 9 in the rankings. After her, the next two seeds are Lucie Safarova and Svetlana Kuznetsova.

Player of Interest: Madison Keys. The American will make her first appearance since the Australian Open, and will start against either Nicole Gibbs or Alexandra Dulgheru. Is Maddy due for another run? Soon, yes, but probably not now.

Semifinalist: Radwanska

Here we arrive at Next Gen corner: The top two seeds in this section are Muguruza and Belinda Bencic. Last year, they jockeyed for position on the WTA totem pole; right now neither is riding high, exactly, but the 18-year-old Bencic has had a better season so far than the often-listless Muguruza. The Spaniard seems to have some mental work to do to get back to where she was at the end of 2015.

Also here: Former Next Genners Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki. At No. 13, Vika has been on the slow way up (though she pulled out of her last event, in Acapulco, with a wrist injury), while Wozniacki, at No. 20, has been sinking again. They’re projected to play in the third round.

Sleeper: Elina Svitolina. The Ukrainian is coming off a title in Kuala Lumpur.

Returning: Laura Robson, who will start against Magdalena Rybarikova.

Semifinalist: Azarenka

Traditionally, a player who does surprisingly well at the Australian Open receives a warm welcome in Indian Wells. That will certainly be true for Kerber. The No. 2 seed will try to show that her Aussie title wasn’t a fluke, and that she can handle the thin air at the top of the rankings. Kerber has played well here in the past; this year she’ll start against either Petra Cetkovska or Denisa Allertova. The first seed she could face is Johanna Konta.

Also Here: 2008 champion Ana Ivanovic, No. 12 Timea Bacsinszky and Karolina Pliskova, whose ranking has dropped to No. 18.

Possible Second-Round Match to Watch: Sloane Stephens vs. Eugenie Bouchard. The Canadian has to win a round to get to the American, but both of these former sure shots have shown signs of renewed life in 2016.

Semifinalist: Kerber

Semifinals: S. Williams d. Radwanska; Azarenka d. Kerber

Final: S. Williams d. Azarenka