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By Tom Perrotta
In Indian Wells, conservative tennis and collapses were the rule among the WTA’s stars. In Miami, I’m predicting (and hoping, hoping, hoping) for a return to offensive-minded tennis and clutch performances. The conditions should be right: Slightly faster courts, more humidity, and less wind mean more incentive to play aggressively. Serena Williams certainly would be, if she weren’t skipping one of her favorite events to rest her injured knee (she has won this title five times, most recently in 2008). It’s up to Venus to keep this tournament in the family. Here’s saying she will.
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First Quarter
Svetlana Kuznetsova is the top seed for the second tournament in a row, and this time she has a good draw to go with the No. 1. The Russian could face Alicia Molik, who looked good in Indian Wells, and then Marion Bartoli in the fourth round. Kuznetsova has a good history at this tournament. She won it in 2006 and lost in the semifinals the last two years, both times to the eventual champion. Her solid serve and powerful strokes are perfect for the event.
Kuznetsova’s game should be just enough to outdo Yanina Wickmayer in the quarterfinals. Wickmayer has an excellent draw, and her wiry athleticism will give Kuznetsova fits. But I’ll stick with my opening premise—that the Miami conditions reward the most offensive-minded and clutch players—and take the woman with both weapons and experience.
—First-round match to watch: Alicia Molik vs. Ashley Harkleroad. Harkleroad, who posed for Playboy two summers ago, left the tour in July 2008 and gave birth to a son in March 2009. The 24-year-old is entering the tournament with a protected ranking.
Semifinalist: Kuznetsova
Second Quarter
Venus Williams leads the way, and she’s on a hot streak: She won titles in Dubai and Acapulco recently, and then added the title from the annual Billie Jean King Cup, an exhibition at Madison Square Garden, to her 2010 haul. But is this a real streak, or an aberration? Is Venus healthy and perhaps on her way to another Wimbledon title? Or will she lose her second-round match (and her hearing) against talented young screamer Michelle Larcher De Brito? One never knows with Williams. Of all the game’s all-time great players—I’m talking King, Chris Evert, Martina Navratilova, Steffi Graf, Monica Seles, Justine Henin, and, of course, Serena—Venus is the least predictable. She’s also the least emotional in defeat. Pick her (which I’m doing now) or against her (which I have done many times before) at your own risk.
The other side of this section is open and ripe for a hard-serving, big-hitting charmer (hint, her name is Sabine Lisicki). This is especially true as Ana Ivanovic and Flavia Pennetta continue to struggle. Though Agnieszka Radwanka, a semifinalist in Indian Wells, is the conservative pick for the quarters, I’ll go with Lisicki’s bolder and bigger game (until the quarterfinals).
—One to watch: Croatia’s 5-foot-11 Ajla Tomljanovic, 16, has a bright future, and her second straight wild card (she lost in the first round in Indian Wells).
Semifinalist: V. Williams
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Indian Wells champion Jankovic is in one of the most challenging sections of the draw. (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)Third Quarter**
Jelena Jankovic returns from her triumph in Indian Wells to a tough section of the draw that includes Samantha Stosur, Kim Clijsters, and defending champion Victoria Azarenka. Don’t expect J.J. to repeat here; she’s prone to fatigue, and methinks she’ll be ready for a rest by the fourth round, or quarterfinals at the latest. It’s a great chance for Stosur to shore up her new Top 10 ranking (she reached the quarters last year and would do well to at least defend those points).
I don’t see Stosur going a step further this year, though, because Clijsters has something to prove after falling flat at the Australian Open and in Indian Wells last week. Last year’s U.S. Open was no fluke, but Clijsters has yet to show that she can be consistently good while playing a limited schedule. I believe she can.
—Alphabet Soup: Carla Suarez Navarro and her 18 letters take on Anastasia Pivovarova and her 19 in the first round.
Semifinalist: Clijsters
Fourth Quarter
Elena Dementieva has (mostly) repaired her shaky serve; now she has to improve her luck. The veteran Russian likely will face Justine Henin in the second round, just as she did at the Australian Open. I don’t foresee a Melbourne repeat in Miami, though, and expect Dementieva to reach the semifinals.
She’ll have to work hard to get there, as she could face Henin, Dominika Cibulkova, Vera Zvonareva (or Alisa Kleybanova), and Caroline Wozniacki. A Clijsters-v-Dementieva semifinal would be a bruising, too-close-to-call match between two of the finest athletes on the tour.
—Others to Watch: Americans will want to see Melanie Oudin escape the first round against a qualifier. Brits will have their eyes on wild card Heather Watson, who won last year’s junior U.S. Open title.
Semifinalist: Dementieva
—Semifinals: Williams d. Kuznetsova, Clijsters d. Dementieva
—Final: Williams d. Clijsters
Champion: Venus Williams
Tom Perrotta is a senior editor at TENNIS. Follow him on Twitter.