Sunshine Symposium: Which player has the most to prove at 2024 Indian Wells and Miami?

With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway —the 2024 BNP Paribas Open draw is set to be revealed on Monday, March 4—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.

First up: Which player has the most to prove in March?

STEVE TIGNOR: A year ago, when Elena Rybakina beat Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka back to back to win Indian Wells, she confirmed that she was part of the WTA’s upper echelon—its new Big 3. Since then, Rybakina has shown flashes of that same brilliance, but also flashes of inconsistency and physical fragility. While Swiatek and Sabalenka have each won another Slam in the past year, Rybakina hasn’t reached a major semifinal. Her game isn’t in decline; she has already won two titles and reached a final in 2024. But can she still make it work over a two-week event, against top competition?

MATT FITZGERALD: Jessica Pegula didn’t have the January or February she envisioned. A viral illness forced her to pull out of the Adelaide semifinals and a second-round exit from the Aussie Open soon followed. A split from long-time coach David Witt came next, along with an absence from the Middle East swing to nurse a neck injury. This year’s Sunshine Double is a perfect time for the world No. 5 to reassert herself as the reliable competitor we’ve all grown accustomed to seeing at big events. She won Guadalajara in 2022 and Montréal in 2023, but winning Indian Wells or Miami would marketedly outrank either of those results.

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: There’s a lot on the line for Carlos Alcaraz after he suffered a quarterfinal defeat at the Australian Open and back-to-back early exits during the Golden Swing. The 20-year-old has been seeking a statement win since last year, when he claimed the last of his six titles in 2023 at Wimbledon for his second Grand Slam victory. Now with a target on his back, Alcaraz has struggled to shake off challengers and injuries alike, and the defending champ will arrive at Indian Wells under an injury cloud having twisted his ankle in Rio de Janeiro.

DAVID KANE: Zheng Qinwen has already come within two sets of winning a major title at the Australian Open, but "Queenwen" didn't leave Melbourne with a crown. Instead, Li Na's heir apparent carried a new set of expectations into the Middle East, where she played respectable if unremarkable tennis in Doha and Dubai. With four weeks of hard-court tennis left before the summer, the 21-year-old could solidify the Top 10 ranking she earned in January by breaking new ground in Indian Wells or Miami—having never been past the fourth round at either event.

ED MCGROGAN: Jessica Pegula made a coaching change immediately following a forgettable Australian swing. Despite two years as a Top 5 mainstay, the now-30-year-old is still answering questions about whether she can get over the proverbial hump. She’ll undoubtedly be motivated, and she has fourth-round and semifinal points to defend. Either tournament trophy would be the biggest capture of her career.

LIYA DAVIDOV: Ever since becoming the top-ranked American player on the ATP Tour, Taylor Fritz hasn’t been performing to the best of his abilities. The pressure is often evident when he plays, as he’s hanging on with dear life to a Top 10 ranking instead of competing like he belongs there. Still, a solid finish at the Australian Open and a seventh career title in Delray could set him in good stead for Indian Wells, a title he won back in 2022.

JOEL DRUCKER: Carlos Alcaraz won Miami in ’22 and Indian Wells in ’23. But Alcaraz hasn’t won a tournament since Wimbledon. Alcaraz’s efforts last month at two South American clay-court events were frustrating. In Buenos Aires, he suffered a mild upset versus No. 21 Nicolas Jarry. The next week, in Rio de Janeiro, Alcaraz rolled his ankle and was forced to withdraw. Having made major statements during each of the last two Sunshine Swings and subsequently gone on to win majors, what will Alcaraz bring this year? Can his efforts during Indian Wells and Miami help Alcaraz continue to fuel it yet more? Or will he remain at a career crossroads?

JON LEVEY: It’s becoming a common refrain, but Stefanos Tsitsipas could really use a deep run at one or both of these tournaments. He hasn’t had a great deal of success at either event during his career, and now would be a good time to start. The Greek has dropped out of the Top 10 for the first time in nearly five years and is struggling to string together consistent results. It’s too soon and he’s too talented to wonder if he’s past his “best by” date, but Tsitsipas needs some quality wins to seem relevant again.

PETE BODO: Jessica Pegula, ranked No. 5, had a strong finish in 2023, compiling a nine-match winning streak that produced the title in Seoul and runner-up honors in Cancun at the WTA Finals. But she’s off to a patchy start this year, with just four wins in three events (including the United Cup). She will try to right her ship this week at the WTA 500 in San Diego, a tournament marred by the withdrawal of four solid players led by defending French Open finalist Karolina Muchova.