Supremacy and surprise: Five things we learned about the WTA during the Doha-Dubai double

Historically, the desert double in Doha and Dubai has been a mellow watch. The two tournaments come after the early, dual-gender, Grand Slam energy in Australia has dissipated, and before it picks up again when the tours come back together in Indian Wells in March.

For a certain type of year-round fan, there’s a low-stakes appeal to this. The crowds in Doha and Dubai give off a vacationers’ vibe, and there’s a sense that few, if any, of the results will be remembered by the end of the season. Which means you can watch the matches without stressing about them.

Over the past couple of years, though, the WTA has tried to up the stakes a bit by making Doha and Dubai into 1000-level events. That means the draws are better, and the rankings ramifications are bigger. Virtually every player of note, with the exception of No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka in Doha, was entered in both tournaments.

Yet the vibe didn’t feel all that different. More ranking points, it seems, doesn’t translate into more, or more intense, fans. Will the results matter more this year than they have in the past? Before we move on to the higher-intensity tournaments to come, here’s a look at five things we learned about the state of the women’s tour in Doha and Dubai.

There’s domination one day, shock the next

Two years ago, Iga Swiatek began her rise to No. 1 with a title run in Doha. Since then, the WTA has bounced back and forth between the expected and the surprising. Just when the tour’s top two, Swiatek and Sabalenka, look poised to run away from the pack, an Elena Rybakina or a Marketa Vondrousova or a Coco Gauff comes along to shake things up again with a left-field victory.

That’s how it worked over the past two weeks as well. In Doha, Swiatek rolled to her third straight title. Then, just when she looked ready to go back to back in Dubai, the women threw us another pair of curveballs. Swiatek was upset by 40th-ranked Anna Kalinskaya, who was in turn beaten by 26th-ranked Jasmine Paolini in the final.

That mix of domination and shock is not a bad way for a tour to be. But it would be nice if Paolini and Kalinskaya can back up their success, rather than retreating back to left field.

Swiatek still loves, and needs, Doha

Don’t tell the world No. 1 that what happens in the desert, stays in the desert. In 2022, Doha was where she began a 39-match win streak that took her to No. 1. In 2023, her second straight title here helped her recover from a disappointing Australian Open. And the same thing happened in 2024. After going out in the third round in Melbourne, she didn’t drop a set on her beloved slow hard courts in Doha.

Swiatek’s momentum wasn’t strong enough to get her across the finish line in Dubai, but it didn’t get her there in 2023, either. At this point, she should feel as if her season is progressing just like the last two. In other words, she’s on track to win Roland Garros and finish No. 1 again.

Coco Gauff might be happy to get back to the States

Gauff had coach Brad Gilbert with her in Doha and Dubai, but she didn’t always look like she was pleased to be there herself. She lost her opener in Doha to Katerina Siniakova, then lost to Kalinskaya in the quarterfinals in Dubai. While she did record a couple of wins, including a three-setter of Karolina Pliskova, it never seemed as if the American was comfortable with her game.

Despite her meteoric improvement over the second half of 2023, it’s clear Gauff hasn’t magically fixed her flaws. In Australia, we saw that her forehand and her second serve can still fail to fire. In Doha and Dubai, we saw that she can still let a bad game turn into half a dozen even worse games. Just when she seemed to have righted the ship against Siniakova, she lost a string of games to end the match. And just when she seemed to have Kalinskaya on the ropes, she suddenly found herself down 5-1 in the third.

The good news for Gauff is that she’s heading back to the hard courts of home country, a place where she thrived last year.

Naomi Osaka is getting there

Osaka, desperate to return to top form as quickly as possible, was one player who acted as if her results in Doha mattered. And it showed. She beat two quality opponents in Caroline Garcia and Petra Martic, and lost in two tiebreaks to Karolina Pliskova.

All in all, her game didn’t look far off, and her natural power seems as if it will still be effective against 95% of her opponents, the way it always has been. The fact that she was so disappointed not to beat Pliskova, and get a shot at Swiatek in the next round, may be the best sign of all. Let’s hope her withdrawal from Dubai the following week doesn’t signal anything different, or ominous.

U.S. newcomers make small, steady strides

Osaka, Gauff, Swiatek: Their rises to the top were fast, and seemingly foreordained. But that’s not the norm. The norm looks more like what three young Americans—22-year-old Emma Navarro, 22-year-old Peyton Stearns, and 19-year-old Ashlyn Krueger—are doing now.

Each looked like something of a long-shot to make the tour a few years ago, as they struggled to get out of qualifying. But each has defied the long odds and gained a foothold in the rankings and in main draws.

They’re all in the Top 80 now, and they all showed their promise, on a small scale, in Doha and Dubai. Navarro won three matches; Krueger beat Caroline Garcia and nearly beat Paula Badosa and Karolina Pliskova; and Stearns knocked off Russian prodigy Mirra Andreeva.

The wins are important, but it’s also how they lose these days—fighting, rather than capitulating—that shows their progress. It’s a long road to the top in tennis; it can be an even longer road just to make a living at it.