Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina: formidable favorites, but is any of them a Wimbledon final lock?

BAG CHECK: Veronika Kudermetova

You can’t say this year’s Wimbledon women’s event is a wide-open affair. Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, winners of the last five Grand Slam titles, form a solid trio of favorites. But you can’t say any of them qualify as a lock to make the semifinals or the final, either—each has her vulnerabilities. Which should make this tournament an intriguing mix of the familiar and the surprising. Here’s a look ahead at which we’ll see more of over the fortnight. (CLICK HERE to view the complete draw.)

First Quarter

For a clear-cut world No. 1, Swiatek’s chances at Wimbledon are surprisingly up in the air. She wasn’t confident enough on grass to beat Alizé Cornet last year, but she has had a successful run at a Wimbledon tune-up this week, and she should be feeling good after shaking off some bad results and repeating at Roland Garros.

Swiatek should also feel good about her draw. The first seed she could face is No. 30 Petra Martic, and the second-highest seed in this quarter is Coco Gauff, who Swiatek owns. There are other names of note here, including Victoria Azarenka, Belinda Bencic, Daria Kasatkina, Elise Mertens and Danielle Collins—as well as Venus Williams and Elina Svitolina, who meet in the first round. But Swiatek would be favored against any of them.

First-round matches to watch: Gauff vs. Sofia Kenin; V. Williams vs. Svitolina

Semifinalist: Swiatek

Second Quarter

Jessica Pegula and Caroline Garcia, the highest seeds in this section, are late-bloomers who have had an excellent last 12 months. But neither is especially reliable on grass. The American has never been past the third round at Wimbledon, while the Frenchwoman is 10-9 for her career there.

If one or both falter, who might take advantage? It’s hard to say anyone here is an obvious choice. But the next three seeds, No. 12 Veronika Kudermetova, No. 15 Liudmila Samsonova and No. 20 Donna Vekic, have all had a successful month on grass, and all play with the flat, attacking style usually necessary for success at Wimbledon.

Semifinalist: Kudermetova

Third Quarter

As with Swiatek, there are reasons to think Rybakina is the favorite to win the title. She’s the defending champion, and she’s had a worthy follow-up season in 2023. But she’s not returning to Wimbledon on a roll, either. She had to withdraw from Roland Garros, and went just 1-1 on grass in June.

The third seed has a potentially tricky opener in Shelby Rogers, and an even trickier potential fourth-rounder with either Jelena Ostapenko or Beatriz Haddad Maia. The other half of this quarter features three Wimbledon finalists from the past: Ons Jabeur, Karolina Pliskova and Petra Kvitova. The good news for Rybakina is that she would only have to beat one of them.

Question Mark: Kvitova. The two-time champion comes in having just won a title in Berlin, but she hasn’t been past the fourth round at Wimbledon since she won her last title here, in 2014. Is this the year she finally ends that run of disappointment at her favorite tournament?

Semifinalist: Rybakina

Fourth Quarter

There are reasons to like Sabalenka’s chances, and reasons to doubt them. She nearly made the final here in 2021, and this year she won her first major title, in Melbourne, and nearly made her first major final in Paris. But it’s that last nearly that may hurt. Can Sabalenka put her third-set collapse against Karolina Muchova at Roland Garros behind her? Since then, she suffered a rare early-round loss on grass in Berlin—and she may have to come face to face with Muchova in the fourth round.

If Sabalenka does make the quarters, there are potential dangers there as well, most prominently Maria Sakkari, Barbora Krejcikova, and a currently in-form Madison Keys.

First-round match to watch: Muchova vs. 2022 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Jule Niemeier

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Semifinals: Swiatek d. Kudermetova; Rybakina d. Sabalenka

Final: Rybakina d. Swiatek