If you’re not a citizen of the relevant countries, you probably aren't sure how to approach this Davis Cup final. I feel the same way. What began as a possible titanic dream clash in the Buenos Aires cauldron of dirt is now a makeshift muddle in a basketball gym in Mar del Plata. My first reaction at the thought of Argentina vs. Spain, which I began to contemplate as the two teams pulled away in their respective semifinal ties, was, simply enough: “This is gonna be big.” All known sporting clichés were available: Two great clay nations dueling in the orange dust, Nadal the matador venturing alone into the hostile Argentine bull ring, Nalbandian’s long-awaited moment of redemption after a lifetime of underachievement, Maradona on full lunatic parade—a fight promoter could have billed it as the World War of Dirt.
Then the Argentines threw it all out the window by playing the percentages and shifting to an indoor hard court, one made of acrylic. Rightfully, I suppose—would you choose to play Rafael Nadal on clay? But it was nonetheless a bit of a letdown, kind of like finding out that the New York Yankees had chosen to play the 7th game of the World Series not in the Bronx, but in Nassau Coliseum on Long Island because AstroTurf suited their team.
The worst aspect of this move is that it turned out to be useless anyway. Nadal, as you know, isn’t playing. On the one hand, this is a dagger to the heart of the tie. One of the pleasures of Davis Cup is seeing the living legends of this individualistic sport fit their games and personas into a team concept. I have a very distinct memory from the 1980s of laughing at the sight of John McEnroe trying to play cheerleader on the sidelines during U.S. Cup ties. As we found out during his ill-fated run as captain a decade later, the role just didn’t suit him—he was a player through and through. But the soccer-loving Nadal is a team guy at heart and a Davis Cup natural.
That’s generally been the rule among the game’s stars, at least when they’re young and fresh enough to be patriotic. These guys relish their one and only chance to play for someone other than themselves. Virtually every No. 1 player and Hall-of-Famer of recent memory, other than Roger Federer, has been part of a winning team—I have to think that becoming part of that tradition is one reason Federer has decided to return to the competition next year. At the same time Davis Cup has never been star driven; with four ties each year and four players on each team, there are plenty of opportunities for the second tier to have a moment or two in the sun. Mikhail Youzhny, Mario Ancic, Mark Philippoussis, Jonas Bjorkman—these guys have also been heroes of Cup finals.
All of this is a roundabout way of saying that Nadal’s absence isn’t fatal to the tie this weekend. Davis Cup, as we’ve already seen from the twists and turns that this final has taken before a ball has even been hit, remains tennis’ least scripted event and the one place where the sport is more significant than any of the players. The most successful countries, the recent multiple Cup winners like Russia, Spain, Australia, and Sweden, are the ones with benches deep enough to do two things: sub in strong singles players when the starters aren’t available, and win a few key doubles matches.
Judging from this year’s competition, you might counter that the winning teams have one other thing in common: they play at home. This will be the fourth of four ties this year that Argentina will stage at home, a place where they haven’t lost since 1989. Still, at least in the championship round, home court is no guarantee of DC success: In the last 10 years, five teams have walked onto foreign soil and walked off with the Cup. Regardless of crowd noise or court surface, this tie will come down to the bench, specifically Spain’s bench—are they opportunistic enough to steal three wins from Argentina’s A-team? Before you say what I think you’re going to say—“Hell no”—let’s take a closer look.
First rubber: David Ferrer vs. David Nalbandian
I was surprised to see that Ferrer owns a 6-3 head-to-head edge over Nalbandian. Look closer, though, and that record takes on a little less meaning. The Spaniard jumped out to an early lead by winning their first three matches, all of which were played on clay. It’s probably more useful to mention that these two have split their four matches on hard courts, Nalbandian having won the last one in three sets in Paris in 2007.
Record aside, there’s no reason to think that Nalbandian will lose this. He’s the definition of a Cup stalwart, with a 16-2 mark in home ties, and he has described this weekend as the biggest in the country’s tennis history—you get the feeling he’s not scared by that idea. He’s been playing well lately, which is usually the case with him once the Grand Slams are over. He’s rested and has been at home for a few weeks. And Ferrer has been in the depths of a slump; he lost in the first round of his last two events, in Madrid and Paris, and his ranking has slipped from a high of No. 4 in February to No. 12 this week. The one positive Ferrer has going right now is that he won a crucial match for the Spanish in the semis, beating Andy Roddick 8-6 in the fifth set. But that was on clay. Against an American. Ferrer is not a bad guy to have on the bench, but starting him in Nadal’s place is a tie-killer for the Spanish.
Winner: Nalbandian
Second rubber: Feliciano Lopez vs. Juan Martin del Potro
Del Potro showed Cup-worthy heart and skill with his two straight-set demolitions over the Russians in the semis. But Lopez is a tricky player, a big, clunky, rhythmless lefty who on occasion can play lights out, but who tends to make the wrong shot at just the wrong time—he’s the anti-Nadal in many respects. He beat del Potro the only time they played this year, in straight sets in Key Biscayne. Tricky, dangerous, someone not to overlook: Lopez may be all these things, but he’s most likely not going to be a winner on Friday. Del Potro does everything better except serve, and his return should neutralize Lopez’s nasty, erratic left-handed delivery. It may come down to how fast the Argentines made the court in anticipation of Nadal’s presence. After practicing on it, Lopez says it’s “not that fast.” I don’t think that’s good news for him.
Winner: Del Potro
Third rubber: Lopez-Fernando Verdasco vs. Jose Acasuso-Agustin Calleri
The doubles is DC's eternal wild card, right down to who actually walks onto the court. Depending on how his singles match goes on Friday, we might see Nalbandian subbed in here, though that move almost proved disastrous for captain Alberto Mancini in the semis. Nalbandian lost a five-setter in dubs and then lost a tired 6-0 fourth set to Nikolay Davydenko the next day, sending the tie to a fifth rubber. As dramatic as that was, I’m guessing Mancini doesn’t want a repeat.
Lopez and Verdasco are a consistent DC team for Spain, so this may be the match-up we’re going to get. One guess: It’s going to be long. The Spaniards have won two matches in the last two years 12-10 in the fifth set, and as I said, the Argentines went the distance in doubles last round. Acasuso is 7-3 in DC overall, but just 2-1 in doubles; Calleri has been stronger—14-6 overall, 6-2 in doubles, though he did partner Nalbandian to a crucial straight-set loss in the 2006 final against Russia.
Lopez may be tired from singles and Verdasco is anything but a big-match player, but they at least have the benefit of continuity. They know the feeling of going out there together for their country, and if they’re down 0-2, they’ll need to win more than their opponents will. Other than that, I have no idea what’s going to happen.
Winner: Lopez-Verdasco
Fourth rubber: Ferrer vs. Del Potro
Again, subs are possible on the Spanish side, though captain Emilio Sanchez's options aren't ideal: It's either Verdasco or the team’s fourth member, the unheralded and unorthodox clay-courter Marcel Granollers, No. 56 in the world. Where did he come from? J.C. Ferrero is on vacation, Carlos Moya is done with DC, Tommy Robredo couldn’t make it, and I’m not sure what happened to Nicolas Almagro. That's how you get to the mysterious Marcel.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say we’ll be watching David Ferrer again. Ferrer is 2-1 against del Potro, but the Argentine won their last one this fall in Tokyo in straight sets. While del Potro has been hurting, he’s also shown a real ability to ignore any pain or fatigue and focus on the tasks at hand. Being one match away from the Cup should help him do it again. As heavy as a clinching match may be on his young shoulders, I can’t ignore the way he performed in the deciding match last round. When it was do or die, he did, beating the more experienced Igor Andreev 6-4, 6-2, 6-1. Sometimes it pays to be young when this kind of title is on the line. You don’t quite recognize the significance of what you’re about to do.
Winner: Del Potro
Argentina: 3-1
The first rubber begins on the Tennis Channel in the U.S. at 10:00 Friday, though the Argentines will be treated to commentating by none other than Guillermo Coria and Gaston Gaudio. No matter who plays or what type of court is used, there’s no better or more festive way to wrap up a tennis season than with the Davis Cup final. It’s already been unpredictable; let’s hope it stays that way through the weekend.