!Pic by Pete Bodo
They're trickling into Montreal, even as I write this—coming in under cover of night, with little fanfare, as they always do. It's true of the top stars as well as the spear carriers and desperate fellas trying to keep a toehold in that vaunted, good-as-gold direct-entry list. It's time go get serious, after a couple of weeks of fun and games—does anything make the point better than last week's roll of champions?
The five tournaments that were recently concluded produced this quintuplet of titlists: Nadia Petrova, Serena Williams, Marcel Granollers, Ernests Gulbis and Alexandr Dolgopolov. What are the odds that you'd end up with that? Take Serena out of the equation (for she was playing more-or-less under duress) and you have a vivid illustration of the idea behind the old proverb, When the cat's away the mice will play.
Granollers, Gulbis and Dolgopolov have a grand total of five ATP tour titles between them. They had two going into last Sunday. That raises an interesting question: Are they ready to back it up in the coming weeks? For now the big cats are gathering.
Most of the top players on either tour have been cooling their jets after the back-to-back majors that constitute the heart of the tennis season. They also know that because of the time lag between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, and the fact that the American championships marks the end of the Grand Slam year, doing well in New York has out-sized importance. Memories are are short in tennis; it's true of the players and even moreso of the fans. The U.S. Open is as big as it gets, even if it's just one of the for major legs on which the game sits. Win any of the four majors and you've had a wildly successful year, and the money flows freely as long as you're not too lazy to turn on the spigot.
This break from "serious" tennis for nearly a month is in many ways a godsend. It presents up-and-coming players (think Dolgopolov, Gulbis, or Ryan Harrison) with a doable assignment as well as a chance to build up confidence and ranking points. In that sense, the past few weeks have been like the growing season for new talent. The soil is fertile, opportunities to reach for the sun and soak up the rain abundant.
But it's also unlikely that, starting Monday in Montreal, any new face is going to emerge from the crowd to create a sensation. Come Monday, you're no longer drawing cards, trying to improve your hand. You're showing what you've got. So let's take a look at the players who might make a big impact in August, hoping to ride their good fortune through the last major of the year.
The Contenders
No. 1, Novak Djokovic: What a difference a year makes. Last year, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer in the semis of Toronto (the Canadian Open/Rogers Cup, which annually jumps between between Toronto and Montreal), and in the quarterfinals of Cincinnati to Andy Roddick. But that was at a time when his game was just coming around, and by the time the U.S. Open was over (Djokovic lost to Rafael Nadal in the final) the Serb had positioned himself for the extraordinary, ongoing run that has carried him to two Grand Slam titles and the No. 1 ranking.
Djokovic is an outstanding outdoor, hard-court player. But oddly enough, he's won just one of the two big summer Masters events (Canada, in 2007). On his form this year, he could sweep both. But something tells me that with his streak of earlier this year broken and two majors in hand, he might be content to keep his powder dry for the final showdown in New York.
No. 2, Rafael Nadal: Okay, he won the French and got to the Wimbledon final. But we all—including Rafa—know that he's haunted by Djokovic. I expect Nadal will try to gain momentum and rebuild his confidence in the summer Masters, so look for him to come out firing on all cylinders. And remember, he's the defending champ at the U.S. Open, while Djokovic has been frustrated there in two finals.
Rafa's job is to plant a sliver of doubt in Djokovic's mind as they make their way to New York, and the best way to do that it is to tear it up in the next few weeks. Don't forget, Nadal played some of the best tennis of his career at the Open last year, and he must be hoping and trying to tap into that energy again.
No. 3, Roger Federer: With 10 finals (and six wins) to his credit in Canada and Cincinnati combined, Federer doesn't owe anyone any explanations. The fact that he also won five consecutive U.S. Opens starting in 2004 is proof enough of what those accumulated victories meant.
But this year, the Mighty Fed will find himself having to answer endless questions about what it's like to be 30 (his birthday is August 8th) and falling off the pace set by Djokovic and Nadal. The degree to which he lets those questions get to him will play a large part in what he accomplishes. It will be hard to overcome the distractions, but he could have an excellent summer if he keeps repeating—and believing—the mantra, It's all icing on the cake. . .
And don't think for a moment that his team, particularly Paul Annacone (this is, after all, the U.S. hard court segment) won't be hard at work to improve his chances.
No. 4, Andy Murray: What does it say about the state of tennis that this list of hard-court contenders feels somewhat. . . old hat. Predictable. Perhaps boring. For one thing, it says that the usual suspects have proven their mettle on hard courts, and that nobody has emerged in recent times to challenge their basic year-in, year-out ascendancy. It also says that these are all men for all surfaces, which is why they keep showing up at the top of anyone's handicapping list. The names Marcos Baghdatis, David Nalbandian, Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just confirm it—none of them have had the staying power, despite high expectations, to crack this elite list.
Murray may be in danger of becoming the guy who never won squat in the big picture, but he's as solid a contender as his three more successful rivals; an errant backhand here or a great passing shot there and Murray has that first major. The British No. 1 has collected three titles in the summer Masters events. He could add to that haul in the next few weeks because he's been on the upswing ever since he overcame the terrible swoon he experienced after reaching the Australian Open final (l. to Djokovic—no shame in that, it turns out). He's a great pick as a dark horse among the favorites.
!Pic No. 12, Andy Roddick: It may seem strange to put Roddick in among the contenders while leaving out his countryman, No. 8 Mardy Fish, but that's why they keep statistics and records. And here's a real doozy: Fish was the runner-up in Cincy twice—once way back in 2003 and again last year. But those are the only two bright spots on his August Masters record. He's never gotten out of the second round at either event in any other year.
The encouraging stat about Roddick is that this former U.S. Open champion has been to six finals at the summer Masters events (he's 3-3 in those). The discouraging thing is that the best he's done since he won Cincy in 2006 is two semifinals. This year, Roddick decided to pass up the tournament in Washington D.C. (which is ongoing as I write this), suggesting that he's marshaling his resources for a big push in the summer.
Do you also get the sense that it's all coming to a head for Roddick, who will be 29 before the U.S.Open is over this year? The additional complication is that Roddick deep down wants just one more thing out of his career—a victory at Wimbledon, where he's been runner-up three times. I don't know that Roddick still has the energy and patience to win big on hard courts in the summer.
No. 20, Juan Martin del Potro: He's going to be the most dangerous no. 20 player ever to swing a racket in Cincy or Canada, and he's got all the motivation he might need to have a great summer Masters run. Even that loss to Gulbis last week may end up being a net plus as the big man from Tandil, Argentina, comes face to face with his self-proclaimed desire to be in top (or close to it) shape for the summer hard court events. I look for him to come up big.
The Long Shots
No. 8, Mardy Fish: In spite of those dismal stats cited above, Fish has been on a roll lately, and he wisely pulled out of this week's event in Washington D.C. to rest up and get healthy for the two big Masters events and grand finale in Flushing Meadows. Fish has performed poorly in big events, including the majors, but we all believe in redemption, right? More important, Mardy obviously believes in the concept as well, and has been busy doing everything in his power to facilitate it. Give him the benefit.
No. 5, Robin Soderling: He ought to be good on hard courts, having posted his best early-career results on fast indoor surfaces. But he's never quite figured out the U.S. hard courts and has had a disappointing year in many ways. Still, he could make up some lost ground in the next few weeks.
No. 7, Gael Monfils: "Welcome to my crazy world." And keep dreaming.
No. 9, Tomas Berdych: It would be like him to come up big for a week or two, just to screw things up.
No. 19, Fernando Verdasco: Call me crazy, but this guy has had a lousy year after an excellent one, though he showed signs last week (in Gstaad) of salvaging something—anything—before the final Grand Slam passes. I get the feeling that he could be dangerous in the next few weeks.
No. 24, Marin Cilic: Okay, so he lost the Umag final in his home nation of Croatia to first-time titlist Dolgopolov. That was a bummer, and it tended to overshadow the fact that at least Cilic reached a final for the first time since Marseille. But Umag was on clay, and Cilic has been most dangerous on hard courts (he earned all five of his career titles on that surface). He's only climbed out of the first round at a summer Masters once, but he's been to the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open and the semis in Australia. At 22, he needs to make his move soon. Will this be the year?
No. 29, Milos Raonic: He just began hitting this week after a hip injury and surgery sidelined him from Wimbledon onward, but never underestimate the appetite of a 20-year old, especially when he gets to play before his countrymen in Montreal.
No. 35, John Isner: You all remember that Isner first popped up big in Washington D.C. in 2007 when, as a wild card in just his fourth ATP event, he won a record five straight matches in third-set tiebreakers to reach the final (l. to Roddick). He's never cleared the second round hurdle in Cincinnati or Canada—in fact, he's only played Canada once, and he's not in the entry list this year, either. Apparently, he feels loyal to Washington D.C. and doesn't want to play three weeks in a row (what with two of them being Masters 1000 events). So that leaves Cincinnati as the only place to do some damage, and he's about due.
Most Likely Breakout
No. 88, Ryan Harrison: This kid has an enormous hunger for success, is level-headed and dedicated. I'm not sure anyone has been on the cusp of making big statement as often as Harrison has without quite finding the words. That's okay, he only just turned 19. It all started with that 7-6 in-the-fifth loss to Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round of the U.S. Open (where Harrison had qualified), and this summer it's been building to critical mass.
Harrison made the fourth round at Indian Wells (l. to Federer), and after qualifying for Wimbledon he had No. 6 seed David Ferrer on the ropes but allowed him to slip away. More recently, he lost back-to-back semis to his countryman Fish in, respectively, Atlanta and Los Angeles. The second of those matches ended 7-6 in the third. Nobody can say he isn't being seasoned—or learning to bounce back from tough losses. He'll start winning more of those close battles soon.
Also in this depatment, watch for Grigor Dimitrov and Richard Berankis. I'd add Bernard Tomic, but he already has his breakout event at Wimbledon.
Players to Watch
These are the players who may not be ready to go the distance in a Masters 1000, but could stun some of their more highly-ranked peers: No. 13 Richard Gasquet, No. 15 Viktor Troicki, No. 21 Alexandr Dolgopolov, No. 42 Xavier Malisse, No. 55 Ernests Gulbis, and No. 90 James Blake.
Women tomorrow.