LONDON—This word “favorite,” does it have any meaning? A few years ago Rafael Nadal was asked, not for the first time, whether he considered himself the favorite at a certain event. He implied that the idea was a media concoction that carried no weight in the players’ minds. Basically, there are the seedings, there’s the draw, and that’s the tournament. And it’s true, what player, no matter what Bjorn Borg or Pete Sampras might have said the day before, would walk around thinking “I’m the favorite,” or, worse, “I’m not the favorite” at a certain tournament. The former wouldn’t get you anywhere, and the latter really wouldn’t get you anywhere.
Still, there are times when the word has a clear meaning, when a fast-rising player may not yet be seeded at his true level—think of Nadal’s run to the 2005 French Open title. He wasn’t the top seed, but he was clearly the favorite, and he made good on that label. If you had to pick a favorite for this year’s Wimbledon, you might pick Nadal again. He’s the No. 1 seed and defending champion, and he hasn’t lost here since the 2007 final.
But I would say that this is a men’s tournament without a clear choice. The ATP at this moment is a three-way tussle, with a fourth guy trying to find a way into the ring. Nadal, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic each have their strong points right now, but each has shown weakness as well. Nadal won the French Open, but in the weeks before that Djokovic had been the superior player and had ended his long run of seeming invincibility on clay. That shook Rafa’s confidence. Federer, six-time Wimbledon champ, was looking like a clear third-fiddle until he ambushed Djokovic in Paris and showed, by his primal reaction after match point, that the desire is still very much there. And what about Djokovic himself, the player of the year so far who, when last we saw him, had just had his bubble burst and his heart broken by a mob of riled-up Parisians? He has the best 2011 form, but not the history at Wimbledon.
Is it possible for someone outside of these three, or perhaps four, if you add Andy Murray, to win Wimbledon? Frankly, based on the last four Grand Slams, it’s difficult to imagine. Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Murray have accounted for 13 of the 16 semifinal spots in those events, including all four at this year’s French. (Djokovic reached all four of those semifinals; the others missed one apiece.) It's hard to find other contenders or even dark horses these days. The top four guys have monopolized the majors to such an extent that no one else has any kind of pedigree.
Nevertheless, there are a few other players besides these three to think about as Wimbledon begins. 125 of them, in fact; let’s see where they’ve landed.
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First Quarter
There has been, to me, just a little less joy in Nadal this year, even in his run at Roland Garros. Has the tour grind and the business of being a move-the-needle star started to wear? It didn’t hurt him in Paris in the end, but he did talk that way, and it leaves me wondering if Nadal will be slightly more susceptible to negativity on an inevitable bad day.
But that’s just some idle speculation for the future. When Nadal begins his title defense on Monday, he’ll be looking at a quarter that has at least the potential for difficulty. He might see Pablo Andujar, who used the Djokovic rules—hug the baseline, rock the backhand—to give him a serious challenge at Roland Garros in the second round. Milos Raonic, an unproven but definite grass threat, could come next; or, who knows, maybe Gilles Muller, the lefty who beat Nadal here in 2005.
Juan Martin del Potro, oft-injured and unproven on grass, yet dangerous anywhere and anytime, is in this quarter. So is forgotten 2010 runner-up Tomas Berdych, and the man who might be America’s best hope, Mardy Fish, who likes his chances on grass. But Rafa remains, for lack of a better word, the favorite.
First-round match to watch: Raonic vs. Fabio Fognini. Just sit back and wait to see what transpires.
Semifinalist: Nadal
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Second Quarter
And what about Andy Murray? Is he a favorite as well, after his semi-heroic run at Roland Garros and win in Queens? Looking at his draw, Murray is beginning to look more like Tim Henman than ever. Henman had his Wall of Sampras in the semis that he couldn’t climb; Murray appears set to run straight into the Wall of Nadal once more.
But I think Murray will be happy to take it, because he couldn’t ask for a much better draw to the semis. Blaz Kavcic has a great name, sure; Sergiy Stakhovsky seems like a funny guy; Ivan Ljubicic remains a savvy competitor; Richard Gasquet can play on grass; wild men Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils have their moments, until they reach the quarters; and Andy Roddick has done great things here, except for the unfortunate fact that he also just got run off the court by Murray in Queens.
Murray’s recent history at Wimbledon has been, for the first 10 days or so, to thrive on the pressure and scrutiny and use it to give him that little boost of positive energy that he often can’t find in himself—it’s like one giant Davis Cup tie for him. That’s the positive. The negative is that once he can sense the finish line, once he can imagine taking the trophy from the Queen and making history, he tightens up (see his loss to Nadal last year) or lets the negativity surface again (see his loss to Roddick the year before).
Andy Murray, exciting? That’s right. Whatever happens to him, he’ll add a lot to this fortnight.
Semifinalist: Murray
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Third Quarter
The downside of the dominance of the top players is that, when you look at their draws, it’s hard to find anyone who has gone deep at a major recently, and even the ones who have—Ferrer, Youzhny, Berdych—look like flukes rather than contenders. The dark horse is a dying breed. Nicolas Almagro is the highest seed in Federer's half of this quarter, and these are the names immediately surrounding Federer: Kukushkin, Mannarino, qualifier, Haider-Maurer, Serra, Reister, and Nalbandian.
Isner and Mahut are also nearby, though they might knock each other out of contention again. But if that doesn’t happen, Isner could be a threat. He found his range, and, as he said, his “strut” against Nadal in Paris, and he obviously has the serve for grass, if not the speed.
On the other side is David Ferrer, a solid citizen who has never beaten Federer. More threatening on grass could be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the 12th seed and Queens finalist who seems to have inherited that odd French flair for grass. I’d love to see him use it to his maximum advantage this time around. At this point, with the qualifiers unknown, Tsonga's draw looks promising.
First-round match to watch: Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Fernando Gonzalez. The young, the old, the reckless.
Semifinalist: Federer
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Fourth Quarter
So what about Novak Djokovic? This tournament may tell us a lot about his future. Which Nole is he going to be most of the time? The easily frustrated one who throws his hands in the air when Federer cleans another line with his serve? Or the one who is steady, calm, and persistent enough to win every match from December to June? How much air did Federer take out of that balloon in Paris?
There’s no way to know at the moment. If I had to guess, and I suppose I do, I think that over time Djokovic will become more like the Good Nole, a future No. 1 and regular winner of Slams. He knows exactly what he’s capable of now. But in the short run, as in over the next two weeks, it might be hard for him to find that zone again, to gather all of that confidence back up.
Djokovic doesn’t have an easy quarter. He starts with Chardy and could get Kevin Anderson right after that. Baghdatis is here, as is . . . well, OK, it’s not that tough. The one name that does loom for Djokovic is Robin Soderling’s. Djokovic leveled him on clay this year, but that was then, and this is a new season for Nole, and for his opponents.
First-round match to watch, enjoy, and wonder again what the point of life is: Ernests Gulbis vs. Dmitry Tursunov
Semifinalist: Soderling
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Semifinals: Nadal d. Murray; Federer d. Soderling
Final: If it’s Roger and Rafa, I would normally always pick Nadal. We know the head-to-head record, we know Nadal is 3-0 against Federer this year, and we know, based on his performance at the French, that Federer has a mental block against Nadal, at least on clay. When it was tight—think of the pivotal second-set tiebreaker—Federer was tight.
But Federer did a few things very well in that match. Most important, I thought, he worked his forehand to Rafa’s backhand, rather than letting the reverse happen the vast majority of the time (the reverse still happened, of course). Federer was also able, for certain periods, to find that tricky balance of aggression and margin that he needs to beat Nadal (he couldn’t keep it up for three sets). And when Federer served well, he won. He’s had one breakthrough, against Djokovic. If Federer faces Nadal and serves lights out, he might get another.
Champion: Roger Federer