The Borna Scrutiny

What does a tennis prodigy need most?

“Weapons” are high on everyone's list, and for good reason. Serena Williams, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Maria Sharapova: The most successful players can create their own pace and fire their winners from anywhere.

Movement has become ever more crucial over the last 10 years; when the game is played almost entirely from the baseline, you need to be able to cover it.

And, of course, there’s “mental toughness,” an amorphous term that encompasses the ability stay positive, control your emotions, and not shy away from the big stage or the big moment.

I present this (admittedly well-worn) checklist because today was a day to wonder about the nature, and future, of tennis prodigies. The ATP’s latest, 18-year-old Borna Coric, was up against the tour’s ultimate prodigy made good, 33-year-old Roger Federer. Ranked a career-high No. 84, Coric is the youngest player in the Top 100. The previous day, he had beaten Andy Murray in straight sets; last year he beat Rafael Nadal in straights. To complete his connection to the Big 4, Coric has been dubbed “Baby Djokovic." And it's true, the similarities between the Croat and the Serb do go deeper than their thick shocks of dark hair.

Like Djokovic, Coric is especially good with his two-handed backhand—he calls it his favorite shot—and his return of serve. Visually, though, he's at his most Djokovician when he’s hitting a forehand from deep in the court. Both players use a Western grip and a slightly open stance, and they both enjoy standing back, absorbing the other player’s pace, and sending the ball back with a little extra interest. “Dynamic counterpunching” is the phrase that comes to mind when I see them set their feet to return a well-struck ball on their forehand sides—both of them seem to relish that moment. Coric, like Djokovic, is not a go-for-broke gunner. He enjoys building rallies and working the ball, with margin, toward the corners. He relies on his legs, as much as his arms, to win points. At the moment, his biggest weapon is his energy.

When it comes to the Croat’s strengths, Coric’s and Murray’s words after their quarterfinal were telling.

“It’s one of the biggest wins, for sure,” Coric said. “I was just trying to maintain my level, stay in rallies as long as I can, which I was doing really well. I was also running very well.”

“He didn’t make many errors,” Murray said. “He played very solid and he moved well.”

Of the three essentials for success I listed mentioned above, movement is obviously not going to be a problem for Coric. And while his two biggest wins came with some extenuating circumstances—Nadal had appendicitis when he lost to him last year, and Murray threw in a miserable, 55-error performance on Thursday—that’s how young players have always gained confidence. Federer was sick the first time Nadal beat him in Miami in 2004, but Rafa has beaten him at full strength plenty of times since.

On Friday, there was nothing wrong with Federer when he took on Coric for the first time. Federer played farther up in the court and attacked more than Murray had, and he had success slicing the ball to Coric’s forehand. With his extreme grip on that side, getting under a skidding shot will never be easy for Coric.

It took Federer just 56 minutes, and a 6-2, 6-1 win, to bring Coric plummeting back to earth, and to give him a very clear idea of where he needs to improve. Coric’s negative stats were eye-popping: He hit just three winners against 22 unforced errors, he won just 48 percent of points on his first serve and 20 percent of points on his second serve; and he didn’t make it to the net once. That's not a great display of weaponry.

This is where the comparisons to two other promising young ATP players come in. Coric lacks the booming, get-out-of-jail-free serve of Nick Kyrgios, a 19-year-old Australian currently ranked No. 37. And he lacks the wicked, winner-from-anywhere forehand of Dominic Thiem, a 21-year-old from Austria currently ranked No. 47. If there’s any shot that has defined this era, it’s that last one. Federer has one of the best forehands of all time, and while Nadal and Djokovic have never dominated with their serves, they can finish points with their forehands.

Coric has time to fill out physically and upgrade his shots; the three years that Thiem has on him are a proverbial eternity in terms of tennis development. One disadvantage of being so good so young is that the world gets to see what you’re not quite so good at yet. It also gets to see how frustrating that can be for a teenager. Against Federer, Coric showed his age when he went out of his way to chatter unhappily at his coach. Before one point, Coric was still talking, loudly, as he leaned down to get in position to return serve.

Yet I think Coric's mental game is one of his assets. He obviously isn’t intimidated by facing top players. He seems hungry for success. He doesn’t lack ambition or confidence; Coric began the year by proclaiming himself the "best of my generation." And while Kyrgios seems to want to be a star as much as he does a great player, Coric has been all-business so far. He may be too hard on himself at times, but after watching another prodigy, Bernard Tomic, play it cool for the last five years, that doesn’t seem like such a bad thing. Coric has hired a famous taskmaster, Zeljko Krajan, as his coach.

Movement, mentality, and weapons: Of our three categories, so far Coric scores highly in two of them, while his closest youthful rivals, Kyrgios and Thiem, score higher in the third. We’ll see how these prodigies develop, and which category turns out to be the most, and least, important. Djokovic is not the easiest role model to follow—he works hard for everything he gets—but without his example, I might question how far Coric can go without a bomb serve or a killer forehand.

Coric found out today how difficult it is to do what Novak does and make it work against a player with Federer’s shot-making skills. Afterward, Coric emphasized how much he enjoyed the chance to play Federer, and that’s the only way to look at it. It was a tough experience, but it was the right one, too. Coric was reminded that while time is on his side, the road upward is still long.