The Cauldrons of Clay

Who says they don't like the tennis schedule? It’s been jammed full of significance since March and shows no signs of slowing down. Just when we thought we might get a breather, here come the Davis Cup semifinals; here comes the return of heavy-duty, 3-out-of-5, clay-court tennis; here come the rabid, soccer-fed crowds in Spain and Argentina; and here comes Rafa, Roddick, Kolya, Nails, the Eye-Gores, and even Spaceman Sam. Must be tough to be a player, but what do we care? It’s been a great year to be a fan.

With the titanic goings-on of the last few months—the Wimbledon final, the Olympics, the restorations in Flushing Meadows—you might think that Davis Cup would seem a little, I don’t know, provincial. From an American perspective, it’s certainly a smaller stage—once again, it will pale, coverage-wise, in comparison to this weekend’s Ryder Cup—but don’t tell that to the Argentine and Spanish fans, or to Sam Querrey, who’s going to have to hear them tomorrow as he goes head to head with a matador inside a Madrid bullring. In the end, it’s the presence of said matador, the No. 1 player in the world, Rafael Nadal, that makes this round of the Cup another must-see.

Here’s a look at what the semifinals may offer—with a little unpredictable mayhem on the side, we hope—this weekend.

Russia at Argentina
Ist rubber: David Nalbandian vs. Igor Andreev

Hard to believe, but these two tour vets—Andreev is 25, Nalbandian 26—have never played. All the advantages on paper point toward a Nalbandian win. In Cup singles matches, he’s 15-3 and 8-0 on clay, compared to 9-4 and 6-3 for Andreev. Just as important, the tie is in Buenos Aires, where the Argentines have never lost. After a year of hibernation, with just a few sightings here and there, Nalbo must be ready to come out and play, right? Davis Cup gives him the competitive edge and sustained motivation that he lacks the rest of the year, when he’s just playing for himself. It also makes him a lot more fun to watch. You get an idea of just how good he could have been, had he not been, you know, David Nalbandian.
Winner: Nalbandian

2nd rubber: Juan Martin del Potro vs. Nikolay Davydenko

This is where the tie should get interesting. Davydenko is 1-0 against del Potro, but that match was played indoors in Paris last year. The Russian has said he doesn’t get particularly motivated for Davis Cup, and he’s had his ups and downs in the competition—he’s 12-7 lifetime and has played his share of see-saw five-setters—but we still know pretty much what we’re going to get from him. Del Potro, who turns 20 next week and is just 2-1 lifetime in DC, is the wild card. He lost a key match to Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals in Sweden last year but gutted out a five-set win over Jurgen Melzer in Austria in the opening round. How will he react to this occasion in front of the home fans? He can obviously play on clay—two of his four tournament wins over the summer came on dirt—and I was impressed with his mental resolve at the Open. He didn’t panic. If he doesn't panic here, I think he'll win.
Winner: Del Potro

3rd rubber: Calleri/Canas vs. Tursunov/Kunitsyn

We won’t know who exactly will contest the doubles until Saturday—you never know who or what captain Tarpischev and the Russians are going to throw out there on a given day. If this is the foursome, your guess is as good as mine. Tursunov, at No. 37, is the highest-ranked in doubles, but his superior talent may be drowned by the crowd and mired in the red clay.
Winner: Russia

4th rubber: David Nalbandian vs. Nikolay Davydenko

Again, this match could easily be Nalbandian vs. Tursunov. Either way, like I said, this is Nalbo Time: He’s 5-3 against Davydenko and has won both of their Davis Cup meetings. He’s 1-0 against Tursunov. That might be the tougher match—Tursunov has had his heroic moments against in DC, clinching two ties in 2006 in epic five-setters. Still, this is Buenos Aires, tennis' boiling cauldron of histrionic partisanship. Enough said.
Winner: Nalbandian

Argentina: 4-1

**U.S.A. at Spain

Ist rubber: Rafael Nadal vs. Sam Querrey**

This is obviously an uphill tie for the Americans, but the draw started them out at the very bottom of that hill. Querrey will make his DC debut in perhaps the worst situation imaginable—in Spain, on clay, against Nadal. Rafa says he’s tired but motivated, which should be enough to get him through. These two played a tough four-setter at the Open, and Querrey dictated much of the action in that one. The American showed off some surprising clay instincts in reaching the quarters in Monte Carlo this year. Then again, he lost to Novak Djokovic 4 and 0, and Djokovic has never beaten Nadal on clay. There are wo positives for Querrey: He will truly have nothing to lose at the start, which should allow him to at least enjoy the magnitude of the moment; and his calm demeanor should keep him in the match even if he can’t weather the opening storm from Nadal and the fans. He went down 6-2 quickly in their match at the Open, then made it interesting.
Winner: Nadal

2nd rubber: David Ferrer vs. Andy Roddick

Roddick seems to have gone to Madrid with a dry sense of fatalism about this tie, which may serve him well—with expectations this low, things should only go up from there. He’s 2-3 against Ferrer, though they’ve never played on clay. Their hard-court matches have come down to how many free points Roddick has been able to get on his serve; once the rallies have started, Ferrer, in his rudimentary way, has been more consistent. But they've also never played at a Slam, and this match will have that kind of atmosphere. The question will be how Ferrer, who has reached only one Slam semi in his career, reacts to it. If Roddick can win the first set—he’ll need to be patient enough to use his high-loop forehand to set up his inside-out forehand—and put a seed of doubt in Ferrer’s head, it should be a great match.
Winner: Roddick

3rd rubber: Verdasco/Lopez vs. Fish/Mike Bryan

This will be a battle between a regular, if unspectacular, DC doubles team, and a team with one outstanding doubles player—Mike Bryan—and one relative novice—Mardy Fish hasn’t played DC dubs in five years. The Spaniards own the rare distinction of having won two Cup matches 12-10 in the fifth set, the latest coming in the last round against Germany. They can handle the heat; Bryan can handle the heat; what about Fish, who just found out Wednesday he was going to be doing something more than Sam Querrey’s whipping boy?
Winner: Spain

4th rubber: Nadal vs. Roddick

These two guys played a grueling but entertaining four-setter in the 2004 final in Seville, the only time they’ve face each other on clay. The 18-year-old Nadal won that one and has obviously come a long way since. They’ve split their two matches this year, and there will likely be a stretch or two where Roddick hangs with Nadal and makes it interesting with his serve. Again, the underdog status should help Roddick stay around—he won’t throw in any kind of towel in DC—even when Nadal starts to grind him into the dirt. Which, sooner or later, will happen.
Winner: Nadal

Spain: 4-1

For all of you U.S. fans who want something, anything, to watch other than Ryder Cup, the Russia vs. Argentina tie is on live on the Tennis Channel at 10:00 A.M.; Spain vs. the U.S is on Versus at noon. Enjoy the weekend; let’s hope there’s some customary Davis Cup insanity—a poisoning rumor or two would be nice—along the way.