Over the next six weeks, millions of Americans will flee the paved oppressions of their working lives for a chance to walk barefoot down sandy beaches or through backyard grass. The professional tennis players of the world, meanwhile, will be heading in the opposite direction, straight into those twin torments of summer's dog days: asphalt and humidity.
The men start fully land-locked, in Indianapolis on Monday, while the women wait a week before gathering out west, in Stanford. This stretch of the tennis season—is it the third, fourth, fifth, or 10th leg of the tour?—is typically both overheated and a little sleepy. The top women routinely skip large chunks of it, while the best European men, having already made one swing through the States back in the spring, don’t rouse themselves until the Masters events in August. Still, no matter who’s missing, the sport never lacks for storylines and characters ready to fill the gaps. Lets take a look at five that may develop as we make our way toward the U.S. Open.
Rafa II
A perfectly disastrous storm of events sabotaged what was looking to be a career season for the 23-year-old Rafael Nadal. After winning a Slam and three Masters tournaments, he was hit with his first loss in 30-odd matches at the French Open; the return of knee problems that forced him to miss his beloved Wimbledon; the surrender of his No. 1 ranking; and, for good measure, his parents’ separation. The question now is: How can Nadal put all that behind him and find his best form by the time he reaches Flushing Meadows?
The downside is that Nadal has generally played his best tennis with a few wins under his belt. In 2006, ’07, and ’08, he started slowly out of the gate at the Australian Open but rode a wave of clay momentum all the way to the final at Wimbledon.
The upside is that Nadal changed that dynamic in Melbourne this year, winning Down Under when few people picked him. And despite his knee pain, the rest of his body, as well as his mind, will be much fresher in August than they have been the last three years.
In short, there are too many questions marks surrounding Nadal to make any serious predictions about his summer. One positive: He’ll make his debut in Canada, a tournament he has won twice.
Serena vs. Safina
Is it possible for Serena Williams to win three majors and not finish No. 1? I believe it is; she’s already won two of them, yet she languishes behind the Slam-less Safina in the rankings.
The American has made it clear that she’s not going to kill herself to rectify that situation—she wants majors, nothing else and nothing less. And despite their repeated cries of “road trip!” in USTA commericals over the years, Serena and her sister have never been strong supporters of the organization’s U.S. Open Series. Last year, Serena only played Stanford, where she defaulted in the semifinals. Safina, meanwhile, took advantage of her absence to propel herself toward the top with titles in Los Angeles and Montreal. She has the points to defend during the Series, while Serena has them at the Open itself, which she won in 2008. If I had to choose, I’d say Serena is more likely to do the defending in New York than Safina is to win both L.A. and Toronto again. The loser in this continues to be the rankings system, and the value of the once-coveted No. 1 spot, which has now reached a low point. How long will anyone continue to prize it, or even mention it, if things stay as they are now?
A Del Potro Juggernaut?
A year ago few thought of Juan Martin del Potro as a threat to anyone but himself. Then his career took off. He won four straight titles, including two on U.S. hard courts, in D.C. and L.A. He’s continued to fly along that elevated trajectory ever since, all the way to No. 5 in the world and the semifinals of the French Open. With Nadal just putting his toe back in the competitive waters and Roger Federer becoming a father, it would make a lot of sense if del Potro broke through with his first Masters title this summer. He isn’t listed as playing in L.A. but he is defending his title in D.C., which should be enough to get him primed to face the big guns of August.
What’s Next for Andy?
Whether the hip flexor and the broken heart are healed or not, Andy Roddick is scheduled to play in Indy next week. There we’ll begin to get an idea of whether his level of play during the last three rounds at Wimbledon was a one-week effort, or whether he really has made himself a better all-around player at the not-so-ripe age of 26. I’m thinking the latter is closer to the truth. This doesn’t mean Roddick will have filled the famous holes in his game, or that he’s going to become No. 1 in the world, but I do think that his performance in London will have him believing that he belongs in the very top tier of the sport. He should make the most of that feeling, and that boost in confidence, over the summer.
Who’s Hungry on the Women’s Side?
Last year it was Safina who used the mid-year lull to ambush the rest of the field. Is there anyone who stands a chance of repeating that performance? Two young women, ranked No. 8 and 9, respectively, come to mind: Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki. With the Serbs in decline, there’s room at the top for these two steady risers. Wozniacki has the calmer head and the craftier game, which means she should be a regular in the latter rounds of events. But she’s also played a lot of tennis this year and hasn’t yet proven that she can handle the pace of the best players, or avoid the occasional head-scratching loss. Azarenka is the more explosive and overtly determined of the two, but her ever-present anger takes up a lot of her energy and makes an extended run through two or three events seem unlikely. Still, if anyone is ready to use this sleepy WTA span to hurdle upward, it’s the lean and hungry Vika.
Everyone has a story in tennis; those are just five that come to mind. What else should we be watching for during the hard-court season?