The Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Andrey Rublev, ATP Cincinnati semifinals

When Daniil Medvedev builds up momentum on the quick North American hard courts, he can appear borderline unplayable. With his thundering serve, elite court-coverage and incredible consistency, Medvedev can break his opponent’s spirit in a hurry. He exacted some serious revenge for his recent Olympic loss to Pablo Carreno Busta, throttling the Spaniard, 6-1, 6-1, on Friday.

Medvedev will face off against his good friend Andrey Rublev on Saturday as he look to repeat his 2019 title run. Rublev has been winning ugly in Cincinnati, surviving Marin Cilic and Benoit Paire in three sets, while edging Gael Monfils in two tiebreak sets in his second-round match on Thursday. He appears to have lost some pop on his groundstrokes, which could spell bad news on Saturday.

The opening line for this match was set around -330 in favor of Medvedev, but has been bet all the way up to -380. Medvedev is favored to win by 3.5 games, and after his dominating play these last two weeks that line is absolutely worth a bet.

Let’s keep this one short and to the point. Not only has Medvedev never even lost a set to Rublev, he’s easily covered his game spread in his last five matches. He’s done this before and he’s doing it again. In the lead up to the 2019 US Open, Medvedev covered his game spread in 13 of 15 matches, reaching the final in Washington, D.C. and Toronto before winning in Cincinnati.

Anything can happen in tennis, but all signs are pointing to another comprehensive victory for the world No. 2.

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev -3.5