The Pick: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Karolina Pliskova, Wimbledon semifinals

Aryna Sabalenka’s first career Top 10 win came three years ago against Karolina Pliskova, on grass in Eastbourne. Now, the Belarusian—who will likely be a mainstay in the Top 10 for the foreseeable future—will hope to defeat the Czech in another milestone victory on turf, as she aims to reach her first Grand Slam final.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Sabalenka is listed as a -205 favorite and projected to win by three total games. Both Sabalenka and Pliskova are in fine form, having won convincing straight-set matches over Ons Jabeur and Viktoria Golubic, respectively.

While each match is its own unique event, it’s worth noting that Pliskova’s path to the semifinals has been far less impressive than Sabalenka’s. The Czech’s highest ranked opponent was No. 47 Tamara Zidansek, way back in the first round. Take nothing away from Pliskova, as you can only beat the player in front of you, but Sabalenka eliminated two of the world’s hottest players in Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur in her last two matches.

Pliskova and Sabalenka play a similar game, but the Belarusian is the better athlete and can generate more pace from difficult positions on the court. Sabelenka’s ability to open the court and pounce on short balls should serve her well against her less mobile opponent. Depriving your opponent of time is imperative on all surfaces, but on grass it’s especially important.

Pliskova owns a slight advantage in the first-serve department, and will need a supreme serving day to pull the upset. As we’ve seen the last several years, anything is possible in the late stages of women’s majors, but Sabalenka should have more than enough game to get the job done.

If your bankroll can support a pure -205 moneyline play, by all means do so. If you are hunting value, Sabalenka to win by three total games at -110 is also a fantastic play.

The Pick: Aryna Sabalenka