The Pick: Bianca Andreescu vs. Maria Sakkari, US Open fourth round

At long last, Bianca Andreescu won a match and covered her game spread. Her 6-1, 6-2, beatdown of Greet Minnen on Saturday was the first time she’s won while covering her spread since her second round in Strasbourg back in May. We’ve all seen what happens when the Canadian gains confidence throughout a tournament. Barring her injury withdrawals—and one 6-4 in the third loss to Naomi Osaka at the 2019 China Open—Andreescu has never lost a match after reaching the fourth round of a major or 1000 level event.

Andreescu will face her toughest test of the tournament against Maria Sakkari on Monday. The muscular Greek is arguably the most physically intimidating tennis player since Serena Williams, and wears down her opponents with her extreme speed and weight of shot. According to the oddsmakers, Sakkari is listed as a -160 favorite and projected to win by 2.5 total games.

Their first (and last) meeting at this year’s Miami Open semifinal was a classic. Andreescu was struggling physically, but fought back down from 2-4 in the third set to win the match 7-6 (7), 3-6, 7-6 (4). It was a brutal loss for Sakkari, who absolutely should have beaten Andreescu in her condition. But that’s been the case with Sakkari for a while now. While she has Top 5 potential, she hasn’t been very clutch throughout her career, boasting just one WTA title despite reaching the semifinals at this year’s French Open and three other WTA 1000 events.

The first rule when betting on the Canadian is to make sure your bookmaker voids all retirements. She certainly seems healthy right now but there’s just no way of knowing how her body will hold up in what is sure to be a brutally physical match.

But perhaps the most encouraging sign for Andreescu is her serve. After a long injury layoff, the serve can often be the last shot to return to full strength. She made 78 percent of her first serves last round, and if that trend continues, she should not be a +130 underdog against anyone except Ash Barty.

At some point in the near future, Sakkari will break through in a big way, but until she does, I am going to continue to oppose her in high-pressure situations. She may have more physical tools than Andreescu, but the 2019 champion has a superior tennis mind, and has never lost a match at the US Open.

*The Pick: Bianca Andreescu*