The Pick: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Mikael Ymer, ATP Winston-Salem semifinal

Let’s keep this one short and sweet. Barring injury, Carlos Alcaraz is on the fast track to the world’s Top 10 and beyond. Let’s leave the Rafael Nadal comparisons aside, as there is no such thing as the “next Rafa”, but Alcaraz is the realest of deals. If you’ve been following this column, you’ve hopefully made plenty of money on the absurdly talented 18-year-old this week.

Alcaraz will face off against the ultra-quick Mikael Ymer Friday night in Winston-Salem. Ymer is a beautiful athlete with extreme range and court coverage, but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Alcaraz does not come out on top. According to the oddsmakers, Alcaraz is a -250 favorite and projected to win by 3.5 games.

Ymer's spectacular defense could potentially cause problems for Alcaraz, as the Swede clearly enjoys tracking down shots and allowing his opponent to be the aggressor. But that won’t matter, as the Alcaraz forehand is by far the best shot on the court, and it's not even close.

The courts in Winston-Salem are quite slow and gritty, which gives the Spaniard time to line up his massive forehand, and accentuates his extreme topspin. With coach Juan Carlos Ferrero in his corner, it seems Alcaraz is poised to capture his second career title.

After three consecutive wins on the Spaniard, I have no choice but to play the hot hand and take the -3.5 game spread, as well as a bet on a straight-set victory at +105. Alcaraz has been severely undervalued all week, likely because he’s had no major hardcourt results to speak of. That will change soon, so take advantage while you still can.

The Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -3.5