The Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Andrey Rublev, Aussie Open quarterfinals

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change

“At least one of us [Russians] will be in the semis, at least that’s the good news,” Andrey Rublev said after defeating Casper Ruud in Sunday’s fourth round. "But it’s going to be a tough match. I mean, last time [Medvedev] beat me in the quarters in the US Open.

"Now we’re again in the quarters, so we’ll see what’s going to happen. I hope we can show a great fight and great level.”

There’s no doubt the level will be high as the 2020 ATP title leader faces his good friend Daniil Medvedev, who’s in the midst of an 18-match win streak. But Rublev will need much more than a great level, he’ll need to step far outside his comfort zone because you cannot beat Medvedev with pace alone.

Rublev has yet to win a set against Medvedev in three meetings, and it’s easy to see why. His range, counterpunching ability and backhand to backhand advantage present a nightmare matchup for the hard-hitting Rublev.

It doesn't come naturally, but surprise drop shots like this one will go along way in Rublev’s effort to keep Medvedev from negating his power by standing far behind the baseline.

Medvedev’s forehand is more likely to break down than his backhand, but his running crosscourt forehand is strong, and if he hits it well, it will guarantee an incoming backhand to backhand exchange.

Once Medvedev pins Rublev in the backhand corner, there’s not much he can do.

Medvedev raises his aggression level against Rublev, forcing him to defend more than he likes to. He knows how dangerous his friend is when in control of the point.

Rublev has been a buzzsaw all tournament long, but until he displays the necessary variety, it’s safe to assume that Medvedev will once again have all the answers. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Medvedev is a substantial -278 favorite, and will likely cover his -4.5 game spread as well.

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev

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