The Pick: Denis Shapovalov v. Alexander Zverev, ATP Cup Group A

Despite yesterday’s 7-5, 7-5 loss to Novak Djokovic, Denis Shapovalov should be pleased with his form to begin the 2021 season.

“Playing Shapo is always a great challenge,” said Djokovic— who has now won 21 consecutive matches in Australia, and 11 against Top 20 players— “on hard courts he’s such a dynamic, explosive player and very talented, he has a great future ahead of him, that’s for sure.”

Shapovalov went toe-to-toe with Djokovic until dropping his serve down 5-6 in both the first and second sets. He looked fantastic, and should be extremely confident ahead of his upcoming Tuesday encounter with Alexander Zverev.

At last year’s inaugural ATP Cup, Shapovalov took Zverev to the woodshed, defeating him, 6-2, 6-2, in just over an hour. Zverev will surely be hungry for revenge, but since Shapovalov already has a match under his belt, he’ll need to avoid a slow start. Zverev owns a 3-2 head-to-head advantage over Shapovalov, but has lost the last two meetings.

Due to his dangerous lefty-forehand, Shapovalov already matches up with Zverev better than most, and will avoid Zverev’s bread and butter crosscourt backhand exchanges.

Zverev must strike his backhand down the line effectively, but he’ll also need to hit his forehand with conviction, just like this exchange from his straight-set victory at the 2017 Laver Cup.

Last year, Shapovalov found success against Zverev with his chip return.

Not only does this strategy put more returns in play, but it forces Zverev to move forward early in the point, something he prefers not to do (notice his hesitation after hitting the forehand).

Shapovalov aced Djokovic nine times on Monday. He’ll need to continue to serve well, as Zverev’s range on his return is one of his biggest strengths.That being said, there is no defense for a well-hit lefty slice-out-wide.

This play will immediately open the court to Zverev’s weaker forehand wing.

According to the oddsmakers, Zverev is listed as a -160 favorite. Perhaps Shapovalov is due for a let-down after a crushing loss to Serbia in the doubles decider, but I believe Monday’s match with Djokovic can only act as a positive. Djokovic on Rod Laver Arena is borderline unbeatable, and Shapovalov was with him nearly every step of the way.

Milos Raonic should take care of Jan-Lennard Struff in the first match, so Shapovalov will likely begin with a 1-0 scoreboard advantage. By no means expect another blowout, but Shapovalov is playing well, and has more than enough game to earn his third-straight victory over the German.

The Pick: Denis Shapovalov

2021 Pick Record: 9-1