The Pick: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Matteo Berrettini, Wimbledon semifinals

It takes a special kind of player to reach the Wimbledon semifinals after suffering six consecutive losses. But that’s just what Hubert Hurkacz did after his straight-set dismissal of Roger Federer in the quarterfinals. The Pole was the better player from start to finish, suppressing the Swiss with his exceptional court coverage and thunderous first serve.

Now, Hurkacz will face off against fellow huge-server Matteo Berrettini—who handled Felix Auger-Aliassime in four sets on Wednesday—for a spot in Sunday’s final. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Italian is listed as a -265 favorite and projected to win by 3.5 total games. The two have played twice before, with Berrettini prevailing in the 2018 Australian Open qualifying, and Hurkacz avenging the loss in the 2019 Miami Open first round.

The last time Hurkacz caught fire like this, he ended up as the 2021 Miami champion, defeating three Top 10 players in the process. When Hurkacz picks up a head of steam, he is tough to stop. Against Federer, the 24-year-old used his underrated defensive prowess well, baiting the Swiss into ill-advised approach shots numerous times.

But Berrettini, our longshot pick at 27 to 1 to capture the title, is proving to be borderline unbreakable on the turf. So much of this outcome will depend on Hurkacz's game plan, as he'll need to be the aggressor as much as possible. Hurkacz is deceptively fast, but he's not quick enough to chase down Berrettini's rocket-launcher forehand through the course of a best-of-five-set match.

Hurkacz is a scary player to bet against, so definitely keep any plays on the small side. But with Berrettini’s slice proving more effective on grass than any other surface, he should have enough firepower to hit through the Pole, and cover his -3.5 game spread in the process.

The Pick: Matteo Berrettini -3.5