The Pick: Karen Khachanov vs. Cameron Norrie, ATP Toronto

After a brutal start to the season, Karen Khachanov has put together an incredible few months of tennis, reaching the quarterfinals of Wimbledon and winning a silver medal at the Tokyo Olympics. From February to April, though, Khachanov was one of the best fades (or “bet against’s”) in the sport, failing to win more than two consecutive matches during a nine-tournament stretch.

Cameron Norrie, who has won 37 matches and his first ATP title this season, was responsible for two of those losses. After taking a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Khachanov in Rotterdam, Norrie defeated him in three sets in Barcelona—followed by a merciless 6-1, 6-1, destruction in the Lyon semifinal.

According to the oddsmakers, Khachanov enters their National Bank Open first-rounder as a -130 favorite. While I could certainly make an argument for the red-hot Brit—now at a career-high No. 29—I believe his wins over Khachanov have led to an attackable price for the Russian. Players are bound to have peaks and valleys during the 11-month season, and Norrie was fortunate to face Khachanov twice during what could very well end up being the worst stretch of the his career.

I am also a big believer in revenge matches for tennis betting. In any professional sport, it is extremely difficult to defeat a quality opponent three times in a row, especially one with Khachanov’s supreme physical tools. Having helped lead the “fade Khachanov” movement, I will admit that his recent stretch of good tennis has burned me a few times, and any bets placed on the mercurial 25-year-old should be on the small side.

In the end, expect an extremely physical affair, but Khachanov’s recent form, coupled with recent stretch of not-so-tremendous play from Norrie (loss to Emil Ruusuvuori in Atlanta; down a break in both sets against Giron in D.C; and a loss to Nishikori in D.C.), will result in another solid win for the Russian.

The Pick: Karen Khachanov