The Pick: Naomi Osaka vs. Serena Williams, Australian Open semifinals

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change

In stunning fashion, Serena Williams avenged her 2019 Wimbledon final loss to Simona Halep with a convincing 6-3, 6-3, victory in the quarterfinals. The game’s greatest player will now face the world’s best player, Naomi Osaka, who dismantled the tricky Hsieh Su-Wei 6-2, 6-2.

Prior to the tournament, Naomi Osaka was our best bet to capture the title, and while she remains the gold standard in the women’s game on a hard court, Serena looks like she’s turned the clock back more than a few years during her run in Melbourne.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, this match is a toss-up, with Osaka listed as a slight -150 favorite. Given Serena’s struggles in the late stages of majors the last few years, Osaka is probably the right bet, but there’s a different aura around the 23-time major champion this fortnight.

“She’s playing as well as I’ve seen her play for a long time,” Darren Cahill said about Serena. “She’s moving as well as I’ve seen her move and defend in the last four or five years. Confident. She’s Serena Williams.”

Serena’s movement and defending have been second to none at this year’s Australian Open. She would not have won this point in the past few years.

Serena can’t afford to lose a step ahead of her semifinal clash, because Halep’s power and aggression pales in comparison to Osaka’s. With the exception of two pre-match retirements, the 23-year-old has won 19 matches in a row, and perhaps more impressively, eight three-set matches in a row.

Osaka is most clutch player on tour at the moment. She remained unfazed while saving two match points against Garbine Muguruza in the fourth round.

Matchups between two in-form champions are not complicated: Whoever plays better will win. But in this particular matchup, it’s impossible to know for sure who has the advantage.

Since we picked Osaka to win the tournament, we won’t back down now. But in this scenario, it seems the only safe bet is to take the over 22 game total. A close 7-5, 6-4 result for either player will result in a push, and your money back.

The Pick: Naomi Osaka, over 22 total games

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