The Pick: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Daniil Medvedev, ATP Marseille

Daniil Medvedev began the 2021 season even better than he ended 2020; the reigning ATP Finals champion made a second Grand Slam final at the Australian Open and, after three matches without losing a set, is a heavy favorite at -560 odds to take home his first title of the season at the Open 13 Provence against Pierre-Hugues Herbert (+410).

The Russian is set to break up the rankings monopoly long held by the game’s Golden Era stars, becoming the first world No. 2 not named Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, or Andy Murray since the summer of 2005.

Taking just two losses thus far this season, Medvedev shook off an opening round defeat in Rotterdam last week to show form worthy of that career-high ranking in Marseille—delighting virtual fans tuning in for his power and point construction.

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Undaunted by the dizzying heights of his ascent, Medvedev has often displayed a self-aware sense of humor—particularly through low moments like his regular inability to pass the first round of Roland Garros.

One of his conquerors on the terre battue has been Herbert, a former ATP doubles No. 2 who has tended to play his best tennis at home. Herbert’s last final came at the 2019 Open Sud de France, three months before he upset Medvedev in Paris.

The 29-year-old has been equally inspired in Marseille, scoring wins over Kei Nishikori, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and countryman Ugo Humbert to reach his fourth ATP final—and his first in over two years.

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Taking on the No. 2-seeded Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals, Herbert rallied from a set down to break the Australian Open semifinalist five times to earn a first Top 5 win of his career.

Herbert’s only other encounter with Medvedev came in Rotterdam, where the Russian came back from a set down to defeat the Frenchman in a three-setter in 2018. Marseille’s similar conditions ought to favor Medvedev, who will surely feeling physically fresh having received a first-round bye and benefitted from a semifinal retirement from Australian qualifier Matthew Ebden.

The quiet crowd of cardboard cut-outs will also neutralize what would have been Herbert’s partisan advantage.

"Luckily this time [there is] no crowd, because a final against a French guy in Marseille with a crowd would be not an easy challenge," Medvedev said after the semifinal.

Medvedev has dealt well with expectations all week in Marseille; can he win one last match to maintain his scintillating start to 2021, or will Herbert cap off a fairytale week with a maiden ATP singles title?

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev