The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Andrey Rublev vs. Daniil Medvedev, ATP Finals

WATCH: Over in the Nitto ATP Finals Green Group, Casper Ruud defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets

On Monday, we’ll get an exciting meeting between world No. 7 Andrey Rublev and world No. 5 Daniil Medvedev at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. This will be the first match for either of these players in round-robin play for the Red Group, meaning this isn’t a match that will eliminate either player. But setting a tone for the event by winning your first match can be huge, and even winning a set could make the difference in making the semifinals—they mean a lot in tiebreaker scenarios. With that in mind, we like Rublev to keep this match close.

Medvedev was actually 4-0 in ATP-level matches in his head-to-head series with Rublev heading into the Western & Southern Open in 2021, but Rublev was able to earn a 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 win in that match. That was the first time that Rublev had ever even won a set off Medvedev, but getting on the board in that matchup had to mean a lot for the 25-year-old’s confidence. That was also the most recent meeting between these two players, so Rublev could actually have the mental edge when these two get out there.

It was also nice to see Rublev looking extremely loose in his practice session with Rafael Nadal on Saturday. This season has been trying on the Russian in many ways, but he appears to be in great spirits entering this event. Perhaps that will translate to some nice performances on the court.

Medvedev is extremely well-rested coming into this event, as he lost in the second round of the Rolex Paris Masters—that was his first match in the tournament. That should help him a bit here, but it was also a little concerning to see him lose to a player like Alex de Minaur at that event. That’s a player that really shouldn’t give him much trouble in a tournament that should have mattered to everybody with it being the final Masters 1000 of the season. So, it is worth noting that Medvedev isn’t exactly untouchable right now.

We do think that the 2021 US Open champion will pull through in this match, but we just don’t see him doing so without any hiccups. Rublev is an aggressive player from the baseline and he’s surely going to come out swinging freely here. Meanwhile, Medvedev likes to use his massive frame and impressive set of wheels to play a defensive style. It is, however, a bit frustrating to see Medvedev playing that way, as he has what it takes to be a bit more aggressive himself. He’s as powerful as any player on tour and it’d be nice to see him utilize that a bit more.

Medvedev’s lack of aggression can occasionally find him causing himself some problems, and that’s what see happening here. Rublev just needs to be efficient with his first serves, as he can be absolutely miserable with his own second serve. But we like him to have at least one set in which he really puts it together, which is why we’re backing him to simply force a decider. All in all, it wouldn’t be jarring if he were to win this one outright, but this is a safer play and the odds are great.

The Pick: Rublev To Win A Set (-110)