The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud, Miami

WATCH: Alcaraz has played clutch tennis through big wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Miomir Kecmanovic, and defending champion Hubert Hurkacz.

World No. 16 Carlos Alcaraz has played some of the most remarkable tennis of his career in South Beach over the last two weeks, and the 18-year-old will now look to win the Miami Open when he takes on world No. 8 Casper Ruud in the finals. This will be the second career meeting between these two players, but it’ll be the first time they face one another on hard courts. The surface is especially important when handicapping this one, as Alcaraz is the far superior player on clay courts—which is why he won, 6-2, 6-4 when they played in Marbella in April.

Considering how strong Alcaraz has looked in wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Miomir Kecmanovic, and Hubert Hurkacz in Miami, it’s hard to see a scenario in which the Spaniard doesn’t end up holding the trophy when all is said and done. However, Ruud has earned some impressive wins himself, as he beat Cameron Norrie and Alexander Zverev before beating up on Francisco Cerundolo in the semifinals.

The nature in which Ruud was able to dismantle Cerundolo is actually really important when diving into this one, as Ruud was only on the court for an hour and 35 minutes. Alcaraz, on the other hand, needed two hours and five minutes to defeat Hurkacz, marking his second match in a row that has gone at least two hours. Alcaraz’s best tennis would allow the youngster to run Ruud off the court, but it is fair to question whether or not we’ll see him at his absolute peak here. The Spaniard has been in quite a few battles over the past week, and he works as hard as anyone from point to point. Nobody on the ATP Tour covers as much ground as Alcaraz, and he’s definitely going to run himself wild in this match.

If Alcaraz is a little fatigued coming into this one, it isn’t crazy to think that Ruud is capable of making this a lengthy match. That is why the Over on the game total seems like the best play in this match. Ruud’s serve can be quite lethal when the Norwegian is locked in, so it’s not insane to think that he can force a tiebreaker in this match. If he were to do that, it’d be really hard for this Over not to hit.

Overall, the value just isn’t there to back Alcaraz as a -275 moneyline favorite, as you’d be risking too much money for a small payout. Meanwhile, Ruud just doesn’t seem like he has it in him to pull off an upset like this one, making the +210 moneyline tag for him seem a little weak. You’re best off just playing the total in this match and hoping for the best. Hurkacz lost in straight sets against Alcaraz in the semifinals, but there were still 26 games played in that match. This one could be similarly one sided while also helping Over bettors cash.

The Pick: Over 21.5 Games (-145)