The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Hubert Hurkacz, Miami 

World No. 16 Carlos Alcaraz has had a coming out party at the Miami Open, and is now zeroing in on the biggest title of his career. Next up for the 18-year-old rising star is a semifinal match-up with defending champion and world No. 10 Hubert Hurkacz, who is fresh off a 7-6 (7), 6-3 win over world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals. This is a contest that a lot of people will be looking forward to, and should be one that bettors are excited about as well.

Despite the fact that Alcaraz has looked like the best player in this tournament, the oddsmakers actually put out some generous lines for those that are looking to back the Spaniard. Of course, it’s never easy to take a moneyline favorite at -230, but the game spread is a good option in this match. At just 2.5 games, it’s extremely reasonable to expect that Alcaraz will ultimately find a way to get the job done against Hurkacz.

After turning in the best performance of his career in a 7-5, 6-3 win over world No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alcaraz was then pushed to his absolute limit in a . While that might be alarming for those worried about a dip in form from Alcaraz, it is important to note that Kecmanovic appears to be in the midst of a massive breakout in the 2022 season. The Serbian has a solid all-around game and has already won 19 matches this year. The 22-year-old played some remarkable tennis against Alcaraz, but the Spaniard was able to dig deep and find a way to get through. For as impressive as all of Alcaraz’s physical abilities are, his mental strength is nearly as remarkable. A lot of players would have gotten in their own heads and let that match slip away, but Alcaraz wouldn’t be denied.

Hurkacz deserves a lot of credit for earning a win over a player as good as Medvedev, but it should be noted that the humidity in Miami was always a threat to get to the Russian at some point. He has had problems dealing with conditions like these in the past, and it was clearly getting the best of him against Hurkacz.

Alcaraz isn’t going to run into the same problems that Medvedev did, as he is one of the fittest players on the ATP Tour. The youngster has the ability to play his exciting brand of tennis no matter the environment, and should frustrate Hurkacz with his ability to run down everything. The 25-year-old is also a player that can occasionally get sloppy with his ground strokes, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Alcaraz’s ability to keep points alive leads to some big misses by Hurkacz.

The Pole does have a very good serve when he’s locked in, but Alcaraz has been finding ways to get into everybody’s serve this week. He stands far back and just finds a way to push the ball back into play, negating a strength and transitioning to the baseline battles he's been winning with regularity. That type of returning is one of the many reasons his future is so bright, and it’s also one of the reasons the game spread isn’t so daunting in this spot. Alcaraz is completely capable of running away with a set, which would put bettors in a great position here.

The Pick: Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-135)