The Pick presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev, ATP Paris semifinals

Zverev should have a slight edge on the slow Paris Masters hard courts in his 10th meeting with the world No. 2.

Published Nov 06, 2021

MATCH POINT: D. Medvedev def. H. Gaston; Paris QF

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Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev will meet for the 10th time on Saturday in Paris. If you’ve never bet this particular matchup before, you should know that it will always be a borderline pick-em on a hard court. Unless Zverev faces Medvedev on clay, the outcome of the match will always be extremely difficult to predict, as these two players are evenly matched in almost every department.

Zverev has won five of their nine career meetings, but lost to Medvedev in last year’s championship match. According to the oddsmakers, Medvedev is listed as a slight -130 favorite and projected to win by 1 total game.

There are countless factors when analyzing the potential outcome of a tennis match, but nothing is more important than the court surface. While Paris always plays pretty slow, this year is on the extreme side, and Medvedev is not a fan.

Medvedev has won his last three matches against Zverev.

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But Zverev definitely loves these conditions, as the slower surface gives him slightly more time to line up his forehand, and like Medvedev, he rarely misses a backhand. The major difference on this particular court, is that Medvedev's backhand is one of the flattest hit shots in the world, while Zverev can shape his with topspin a bit better.

The German was clinical in his 7-5, 6-4 victory over Casper Ruud on Friday. The scoreline may seem close, but Zverev dominated in almost every facet of the game.

Once again, this particular matchup is a toss-up, but I expect Zverev to avenge his crushing defeat in last year’s championship, and he is much better value as a +130 underdog than Medvedev is as a -130 favorite.

The Pick: Alexander Zverev

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