The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Diego Schwartzman, Madrid

In what could end up being one of the best matches of the day at the Mutua Madrid Open, world No. 20 Grigor Dimitrov takes on world No. 15 Diego Schwartzman with a spot in the round of 16 on the line. This is a big tournament for both of these players, but it’s Dimitrov that is looking to make a bigger splash with a good showing here. The Bulgarian made it to the semifinals in Monte Carlo a few weeks back, and he has really put together an impressive 2022 resume as we get closer to the midway point of the year.

Dimitrov has made at least the quarterfinals in four of the eight events he has played this year, and he also happens to have some big wins on the dirt. The 30-year-old earned a straight-set victory over world No. 7 Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo, and he followed that one up with a three-set win over world No. 14 Hubert Hurkacz. The point here is that Dimitrov is really feeling comfortable on clay right now, so he won’t exactly be out of his league against Schwartzman.

The Argentinean has always been a tough player to beat on clay courts, but he is also a player that needs to work extremely hard to get through his matches. Schwartzman has impressive power on his forehand for a guy his size, and he’s also a fantastic defender. He does, however, possess one of the weaker serves on tour, and that gives opponents the opportunity to see a lot of chances to break. Dimitrov is a pretty good returner, so he’ll capitalize on any mistakes Schwartzman makes.

It’s also worth noting that Dimitrov covers the court really well, so he can handle some of the longer points he’ll play. Not many people have the stamina or mental strength to hit the amount of extra shots you need to against Schwartzman, but Dimitrov is definitely capable of it. That’s probably part of the reason that Dimitrov is 2-1 against Schwartzman in his career, and the 30-year-old has also won at least one set in every match he has played against him.

With that in mind, don’t count on this being a straightforward win for Schwartzman, who is the betting favorite in this match. The Bulgarian will have his opportunities to win this one outright, but we like him to at least force a deciding set no matter what. And overall, you won’t have to pay a lot of juice to take the safer play.

The Pick: Dimitrov To Win A Set (-160)