The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Lauren Davis vs. Petra Kvitova, Miami

World No. 32 Petra Kvitova was pushed to a deciding set by world No. 82 Clara Burel in the second round of the Miami Open, but she was able to emerge with a 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 victory. Now, the 32-year-old will take on world No. 94 Lauren Davis, who had to go through qualifying to get into the main draw of this event.

Davis is a huge underdog in this match-up, but we like her chances to really make Kvitova work for this. The American has played four matches in South Beach this week, and she is still yet to drop a single set. Of course, Davis didn’t see great players throughout her qualifying rounds, but that level of play is hard to overlook. The 28-year-old is clearly comfortable with the conditions in Miami, where a lot of players have been struggling to find their games thus far.

One of the reasons Davis might be playing so well is that she trained at the Evert Tennis Academy in Boca Raton, Florida. That means that Davis knows all too well what it’s like to play in absurdly humid conditions. Davis is also well known for her ability to play on clay courts, and we’ve seen quite a few dirtballers finding some unexpected success in Miami thus far.

Overall, it just isn’t hard to see a scenario in which Davis hangs around in this match—or even wins it. Kvitova is just 7-7 since the start of the 2022 season, so she is clearly struggling to find her form. The Czech hasn’t been as reliable from the baseline as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from her, and that’s yet another thing that directly impacts this match-up. These unpredictable Miami conditions favor the player that makes less mistakes, and Davis doesn’t give her opponents many free points. Her court coverage is as good as it gets on the WTA tour, and she’s going to force a struggling Kvitova to play extra points as much as possible.

Perhaps backing Davis as a +260 favorite is a little ambitious, but grabbing her to win a set is incredible value. We saw Kvitova drop one to a lesser opponent in her last time out, and there’s no reason that Davis can’t make her go the distance, at the very least. It doesn’t hurt that the crowd will be behind Davis either.

The Pick: Lauren Davis To Win A Set (-115)