The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Rafael Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev

While world No. 5 Rafael Nadal will be searching for a record-setting 21st major title in this year’s Australian Open final, world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev has an opportunity to win back-to-back Grand Slam titles. This is the second time that these two have met in the final of a major, with Nadal having earned a 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 win over the Russian at the 2019 US Open. This, however, is a very different version of Medvedev, who officially joined tennis’ elite when he beat Novak Djokovic in straight sets of the 2021 US Open final.

The 25-year-old comes into this match on the heels of a 7-6 (5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 win over world No. 4 Stefanos Tsitsipas. That win was more impressive than anything Nadal has done at this tournament thus far, and Medvedev also had to go through Nick Kyrgios at the start of this event—which is no easy task in Melbourne. On top of that, he erased a two-set deficit to beat world No. 9 Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals, allowing him to battle through the type of adversity you need to go on to secure a major title.

Nadal did look good in a four-set win over world No. 7 Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals, but his opponent gifted him the first two sets in that match. From there, the Italian played him rather evenly, and we have continually seen signs of struggle from Nadal. The 35-year-old did have COVID-19 just before the tournament and he has had some trouble with the heat Down Under. Nadal was also dealing with heat stroke in his match against world No. 14 Denis Shapovalov in the quarterfinals. The conditions were much better for Nadal in his most recent match, but we’ve still seen some inconsistent quality from the 20-time Grand Slam champion.

While Nadal has a lot to play for, the same can be said for Medvedev.

This match will already feature an interesting contrast in styles, with Nadal preferring to utilize topspin to hit high-bouncing shots, while Medvedev just rips everything low, flat and with a ton of power. As for the surface, it favors the way that Medvedev plays, and the Russian is the best hard-court player on the ATP tour right now. When you combine that with the fact that Nadal has had multiple stretches in which his power and serve have escaped him, it’s easy to see why Medvedev is such a heavy favorite in this match.

While you could lay some heavy juice on the youngster to win this match on the moneyline, it makes more sense to just roll with Medvedev to cover the game spread. Medvedev is a good enough returner to come away with a lopsided set or two, especially with the way Nadal has served in the last couple of rounds. The Spaniard got away with some shaky service games against lesser opponents in previous rounds, but Medvedev will make him pay for that.

Ultimately, we’re backing the Russian to win his second Grand Slam title, and we think he can do so while also separating himself enough for spread bettors to cash in. While Nadal has a lot to play for, the same can be said for Medvedev. Beating Djokovic to win a major is an impressive feat on its own, but Medvedev can add some credibility to the next generation by knocking off yet another all-time great.

The Pick: Daniil Medvedev -2.5 Games (-135)