The Pick: Reilly Opelka vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas, ATP Toronto semifinal

Stefanos Tsitsipas has covered his game spread in every match so far at the National Bank Open in Toronto. The Greek, who turned 23 on Friday, beat Ugo Humbert, Karen Khachanov, and Casper Ruud all by a margin of seven total games. He’ll next face Reilly Opelka, who, if you didn’t know by now, is not just a servebot.

After being just three points from defeat in his first round victory over Nick Kyrgios, Opelka has found his range from the ground, and is playing some seriously good tennis. Despite being a sizable underdog against Roberto Bautista Agut, the American outplayed the Spaniard in all facets of the game—not just serving—in his 6-3, 7-6 (1), victory.

According to the oddsmakers, Tsitsipas is a -425 favorite and projected to win by 3.5 total games. My gut instinct is to take the game spread and hope Tsitsipas covers, but if Opelka pushes him into a tiebreak in any set, covering that line will be a sweat.

Historically, Tsitsipas has struggled against big servers, as his block return on his backhand side is one of his few unpolished shots. But 3.5 games is a lot against Opelka, and I promise you wishing and hoping he gets broken is not fun.

The correct play tomorrow is to place a live bet at the beginning of the match. If Opelka holds serve in the first game, the line may shift to -2.5 games in Tsitsipas’s favor. If it does, take it.

If Tsitsipas holds in the first game, bet on Opelka to cover if the line shifts to -4.5 in the Greek’s favor. The oddsmakers have this one pretty much nailed, but there could be a decent live betting opportunity if you are tuned in and engaged with the match. A 7-6, 6-4 victory for Tsitsipas is extremely plausible, but a 6-4, 6-3 victory seems a little aggressive given Opelka’s clutch play.

I will be placing a (very) small wager on Tsitsipas to cover his -3.5 game spread, but it’s extremely risky against a player with Opelka’s massive weapons.

The Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas -3